AndyJohnson

If the Pats are average, they go 8-8. How much better than average is this team? Below is an 8-8 prediction game by game, with the 8 most likely wins and the 8 most likely losses. Its very uncommon in the BB era that we lose any of the 8 most likely wins, so if we look at the 8 toughest games, how many of them we win makes or breaks the season, the bye, homefield, etc.

1 Sep 09 NE @ NYJ loss
2 Sep 16 SD @ NE loss
3 Sep 23 BUF @ NE win
4 Oct 01 NE @ CIN loss
5 Oct 07 CLE @ NE win
6 Oct 14 NE @ DAL loss
7 Oct 21 NE @ MIA loss
8 Oct 28 WAS @ NE win
9 Nov 04 NE @ IND loss
10 Bye
11 Nov 18 NE @ BUF loss
12 Nov 25 PHI @ NE win
13 Dec 03 NE @ BAL loss
14 Dec 09 PIT @ NE win
15 Dec 16 NYJ @ NE win
16 Dec 23 MIA @ NE win
17 Dec 29 NE @ NYG win

We should be able to track against this all season. It wasnt that hard to pick wins and losses from an average team perspective. An 8-8 team should be 3-3 in the division. I went heavily with home field, being 7-1 at home, 1-7 away. Basically outside of the division, we beat the worst 2 teams on the road, and lose to the best 2 at home.
What is interesting is this approach gives us a 2-5 and 3-7 start.
If "success" is drawn at above or below 12-4, by this method we would expect to finish winning 5 of the last 6 and 6 of the last 9.
That means a start of 6-1 or 7-3 has us on track for 12-4. To be 12-4 we should win 4 of the 7 "losses" in the first 10 games, Jets, SD, Cincy, Dallas, Miami, Buff, Indy. I like those chances, and actually think we win at least 5 of those.

I think this team is as good as the 04 and 05 teams, so I expect to be able to go 14-2. Add Baltimore to the 7 out of the first 10, and we need to win 6 of them to go 14-2. I do not see us losing to the Jets, Fins or Bills (I expect a divsion sweep) nor to Cincy or Dallas. Based on that we would need to win one of Indy, Baltimore or SD to be 14-2 (assuming everything else holds)
The first 10 weeks of the season, with 6 road games, and SD at home will go along way toward where we stand to a bye and homefield.

patsox23

Interesting perspective, as always, AJ. Thanks.

psychoPat

signbabybrady

thats some kind of crazy reverse lock theory

Dude its much simpler than that If the Pats dont lose than they go 19-0

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KoolAidDrinker

Realisticly, Chargers and Colts will be tough.

It looks to me like:

If we win both, we play three games to glory.

If we lose both, we play four games to glory.

If we split, the first round bye is a toss up.

Hmmmmmm ... maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves

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mgteich

I am not interested in such scenarios until after the bye.

PatsFanSince74

Interesting perspective. Thanks. I note that you have Washington, the Steelers and the Iggles as sure wins. Mmmmmm. Maybe I can see the skins but the other two are tough to put in that category.

Here's how I look at a season. About four years ago, I gave up on calling individual games 100% either way at the beginning of the season. There are too many uncertainties so that, in the NFL today, I don't think there's any such thing as a sure win or a sure loss "on any given sunday" (or monday or thursday or whatever...) from the perspective of the first week (I'm willing to make a fool of myself by picking vs. the spread every week though but actually do very well in picking winners week by week--last year I was 176-80 picking all 256 games).

So, I started to assign probabilities to each pats game the week before the season begins. My system has come within one win in predicting our final record in each of the past three years. For example, last year it predicted 12.5 wins for the pats. I made the mistake of rounding up to 13 for my "official" prediction and got bit in the butt.

I assign probabilities to each game as follows:

10% There is no doubt in my mind that we lose this game.
20% I am very sure that we lose this game.
30% We should lose, but we might get lucky.
40% It's a close call, but I think we lose.
50% I have no idea who's going to win. It's a tossup
60% It's a close call, but I think we win.
70% We should win, but you never know.
80% I am very sure that we win this game.
90% I am so confident that we win this game that I'll be amazed if we lose.

This is how it falls out for me this year:

90%: Browns and Dolphins
80%: Bills, Redskins, Jets and At Giants
70%: At Jets, At Cowboys, At Bills, Eagles and Steelers
60%: At Bengals, At Dolphins, At Ravens
40%: Chargers
30%: At Colts (two home and a road loss in a row)

If you multiply out the above, you get 11 wins, which, given the difficulty of our schedule and the uncertainty of the first few weeks with the new receivers and Rodney's absence, feels about right to me, though I hope I'm wrong.

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Mike the Brit

Excellent post, 74. Thanks.

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denverpatsfan

I would not be surprised if they lose the first 2 games. I also would not be surprised with 11 wins. Not sure it matters though. I think they would need at least 14 in order to get HFA. A tall task for this years schedule.

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JoePats

Most important is the bye. Don't really care about homefield as much (I'd love to have it but) but the bye is critical, far more important than hosting the AFC title game.