Terence

Can somebody tell me what kind of gauranteed money did Welker get in his contract? Wasn't it like 10M - 12M? I would like to know what he got to get an idea for what Samuel should at least get. Thanks!

ctpatsfan77

Terence:

Take a look at the top of this page. Click on the Miguel's Salary Cap Page link. You'll learn everything you want to know about Welker's contract there.

[I'm not sure, though, how Welker's contract tells you what Asante gets.]

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PatsFanInVa

I agree, it's not very useful for examining the Samuel situation, but it gives you an idea of what a lower-risk "keeper" looks like. 5.5M this year, 3.5M next year, in bonuses, for example. That's 9M out of 18M, without taking into account for those years' salaries.

What's striking to me is looking at the various receivers' contracts. Welker obviously has the "trust" factor. There's a lower ceiling but also there's no "prove-it" year, where the temptation is to cut bait after 2007. (Stallworth, for example, will be almost impossible to justify unless he really produces. Moss only has one year on his deal.)

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Oswlek

This is the common opinion, but it is a misconception. After this season, Stallworth has 5 years at $27mm, with $11mm due in bonuses at the beginning of the second year. The question I continue to ask is: How is this any different than going into the FA market and signing a lower tier #1 WR? It is less guaranteed and total money than Branch received last year. If Stallworth plays only 80% as well as he did in Philly and he stays healthy (that's the big question) he will most certainly come back for his second season.

It has a prove it year, but it is still very reasonable afterward for a player of Stallworth's calliber, assuming he stays healthy. Admittedly, I was not very high on Donte going into last year, but he played very well in Philly, IMHO.

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PatsFan37

I agree. If you read Miguel's notes on Stallworth and his salary spreadsheet, it's a reasonable contract for a #1 WR going forward. I've heard rumbling (certainly not from you) that this is a great year for Pats WRs but they're in trouble again next year. I disagree with that sentiment.

While they don't have the stable of long-term signed talent that some teams have, they're better off than most. They have Welker through 2011, a proven player. They have CJ signed for 2009. Wrong to write him in and wrong to write him off. They will battle-test two superb WRs: Moss and Stallworth. Maybe Moss blossoms again and they re-sign him and let Stallworth go. Maybe Stallworth blossoms again and Moss wants too much money and Stallworth is the future #1 at $6.x million.

Two great options so far, plus a lot of injury insurance for the Patriots (esp. given the $100K per game bonus for Stallworth).

Personally, I think Caldwell makes the roster, Brady loves this guy. A solid #2, will not need much money to re-sign. Then maybe Washington, who could be a #2 and possibly a #1 in the making, will not see enough balls to earn a big payday but enough to be tested. Maybe re-signs for reasonable money. If the Pats are well ahead, maybe they pull Stallworth and Moss and let Washington and Caldwell play as a preview of 2008.

Before 2/25/2008, when Stallworth's option bonus is due, the Pats have time to review film, self-scout, talk to agents and decide what to do. They'll have a lot of flexibility. They F.O. did an outstanding job.

PatsFanInVa

Owslek, I don't see where we differ. I said "unless he really produces." You counter with the opinion that he has a very reasonable "#1 receiver salary."

Is the intent to pay a #1 receiver salary, reasonable or otherwise, to a guy who does not produce? $11M for the year, or around $16M for 08 and 09 (once the die is cast,) for a guy playing middling wideout? No. The annual per year over three years of $6+M. But when the decision is made, it's a decision of whether to spend about $8M/year for two remaining years. He's got to be a little more than a Reche Caldwell 06 to merit that. You are correct, however, that he does not have to be Steve Smith 05.

Admittedly, my phrasing left a lot of wiggle room. To clarify: I'm not insisting on 1500 yards and 12 TDs; these are not very achievable in NE's spread attack, as we know it. They seem even less likely in the presence of a Moss. But I don't think he goes forward with that price tag with 600 yards and 5 TDs. Somewhere in the middle, he crosses the threshold where those contract numbers become real.

PF37, I agree with you that the Moss/Stallworth choice is a great one to have to make -- if indeed we even have to make it -- come 2008. I too disagree with anyone who says the receiver position upgrade is a one-year deal. I do think they'd love CJ to show signs of apprenticing successfully to Moss/Stallworth, so they fill their "#2" position at a decent cost. I don't understand the theory that the Pats will have decent receivers "one season only." I do understand the theory that Moss and Stallworth are likely an either/or proposition, going forward. A big-time contract for a resurgent Moss, in addition to the Stallworth deal, seems like it might put a bit more into the WR basket than the Pats would assign.

OTOH... BB has raved about Moss many times. It seems that Stallworth was meant to be a young/"poor man's" Moss (speaking of the "former" Moss.) BB having both playing well and minding their manners? Here's an idea to strike fear in everybody's heart except ours: what if Moss just really, really likes rings, and already feels okay about the money he's earned?

What if Stallworth gets his remaining $16M, and Moss signs at $6M/APY over 3 years? Sure, we have issues with the big D Line contracts... but no law says we have to pick up the slack at WR. It's just what we've done in the past.

For my money, it's a scary proposition, in a way... but if Moss likes it here, we'll have to face it. The problem is that we're building a large tier of $6M+ guys, something we've historically kept to 1 or 2 players, and that's going to thin our depth (even with new cap inflation every year.) This does bring up the prospect that buying now is buying cheap, given the next few years' cap inflation... but the bull in me says don't go nuts at any one position. Then again, we've been spoiled (cap-wise) at many positions. Most FOs don't bat an eye at 2 wideouts making 6M/year.

Whew. I'm so jonesing for 2007 I'm already making up issues for 2008.

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JoeSixPat

Looking over the various responses here I think its worthwhile to chime in that "#1 WR" is a relative term in New England.

While other teams have a #1 & #2 WR that catch the vast majority of passes, in NE the desire is to spread the ball around much more - and while that's included TEs & RBs in the past it seems that the new depth at WR points to multiple WR sets.

As such, in NE the #1 WR is a role player - a dependable WR who can stretch the field deep and ideally, run good routes as well.

Both Stallworth and Moss (I was surprised to see he's actually a good route runner) will fill this role nicely and out of the two, I'd expect that Stallworth has a better chance to be back next year.

Stallworth doesn't need to catch 80 passes to be our #1 WR - he needs to do only what he did in Philly last year (and hopefully remain healthy)

If he does that will he be worth an $11 million signing bonus next year? I'd say absolutely yes... his impact in averaging 19 ypc goes FAR beyond the number of receptions he has.

Last year's WR corps proved the downside of that - with only 2 passess ALL SEASON going for 40 yards or more, safeties were moving up to the line of scrimmage and many aspects of our game were adversely affected. A guy like Stallworth opening the field for our RBs, TEs, QB, & WRs would easilly be worth $5.5 million a year - which is what I see with an $11 million signing bonus prorated over a minimum 2 years of effectiveness.

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Box_O_Rocks

To play off Joe's NE use's #1 differently argument: Andrea Kramer was on the Jul 4 NFL Total Access program and brought up the point that Bill Belichick is just as good an offensive coach as he is defensive. She stressed how the new WR corps gives Bill more 'mad wizard' options to change the look of his offense week to week.

During the Wildcard game with the Jets I believe it was Phil Simms reporting how Gaffney had been prominent during the week's practices...look how Gaff surprised folks and caught around 10-11 that day. Look how TE and RB appear then disappear week to week. How Minnesota went from front runner to whodat? after BB/JM showed the league how to spank them.

Andrea's point seems well made when you look at how this offense has been developing over the off-season and how the Pats spread it around approach catches teams off guard often enough.

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PatsFanInVa

Yes, the "mad wizard" with more toys is the way to look at this; no, we do not see Donte next year if he does not produce. The attack will be balanced, since the stretched field threat means nothing if you never throw to it. 19.1 YPC? Fine, the number of receptions will not be the determinent. 60 for 1100+ yards will probably do the trick. Again, going by numbers runs smack into the BB approach of using them all as ingredients in a big pot of whoopass stew; but at some juncture, you have to assess value to the team. Again, I don't think Caldwell numbers keep Stallworth's job for him, no matter how well he plays his role. I also don't think Randy gets a very sexy contract if he puts up Caldwell numbers.

Interestingly, if "keep one but not both" is even an option, the two are inherently pitted against one another. Just in case they need fires under their respective buttocks. Of course, in Randyland a fire under the buttocks might produce a flaming fartstorm, to stretch the metaphor ridiculously.

But if they end up in "friendly competition," this goes beyond scary. It's not just Stallworth and Moss and Brady together at last, it's Stallworth and Moss incentivized together with Brady. Oh yeah, and Welker and whoever else. Just for kicks let's say CJ really shapes up midway through the year.

Okay, just typed myself into a lather again. So tired of speculation, so ready for September...

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