Gon_Trevil

People of the earth: a top 5 draft pick does not bring the Messiah. Quite the contrary...

You need to stop thinking of high draft picks as some kind of Holy Grail and look at it in terms of players. A Top 5 overall pick is just that, one player. A very expensive one, at that. Which is why I'm always somewhat irritated at hearing people say it'd be the dumbest thing in the world for a team to trade a Top 5 pick for a mere 2 first rounders. I mean, how many Top 5 picks this millennium have turned out to be worth 2 first rounders? Very few.

Here's a little draft history:

2000 Draft
1. Courtney Brown
2. Lavar Arrington
3. Chris Samuels
4. Peter Warrick
5. Jamal Lewis

2001 Draft
1. Michael Vick
2. Leonard Davis
3. Gerard Warren
4. Justin Smith
5. LaDainian Tomlinson

2002 Draft
1. David Carr
2. Julius Peppers
3. Joey Harrington
4. Mike Williams
5. Quentin Jammer

2003 Draft
1. Carson Palmer
2. Charles Rogers
3. Andre Johnson
4. Dewayne Robertson
5. Terrence Newman

2004 Draft
1. Eli Manning
2. Robert Gallery
3. Larry Fitzgerald
4. Phillip Rivers
5. Sean Taylor

2005 Draft
1. Alex Smith
2. Ronnie Brown
3. Braylon Edwards
4. Cedric Benson
5. Cadillac Williams

I'll leave the 2006 draft out of this because they've only had one year.

Now, for how many of those guys would you be willing to give up two first rounders? LaDainian and Palmer, and perhaps Fitzgerald. Three guys. OUT OF THIRTY TOP 5 PICKS THIS MILLENNIUM!

At least by keeping both our #24 and #28 picks, we have two chances at landing an impact player.

I'll make one last example: In 2004, the Patriots had the #21 and #32 picks in the draft. They selected Vince Wilfork and Ben Watson, respectively.

Would you trade BOTH of them for any of the players in the Top 5 in that draft? There are 2 QBs: One is Bledsoe incarnate; the other proved he can play well with the best OL, RB, and TE in the league. For obvious reasons, we wouldn't have picked either of those guys. That leaves Gallery, Fitzgerald, and Taylor. I'll even give you the rest of the 1st round picks in that draft, just in case you think the Pats would have taken someone else.

http://www.profootballhof.com/histor...draft/2004.jsp

Would you trade both Wilfork and Watson for any of those guys? And this is before even taking into account the guaranteed money you have to fork over to a possible Top 5 bust.

I'll pass, and keep my team well stocked with the Wilforks and Watsons of the world while you keep swinging and missing praying for your Messiah in the top 5.

Tucker

good post. I'll have to agree. I'd take 2 1st round picks over 1 top 5

primetime

I'd give up my first twos for Andre Johnson without thinking about it. He'd be the best WR in football if he played on a legitimate team, I have no doubts.

The question is, are any of these guys worth the two players picked at #24 and #28, historically? Let's find out:

2000:
#24: Ahmed Plummer (CB, SF)
#28: Rob Morris (LB, Ind)

I'd trade those two for just about any of those top 5. Only Keith Bulluck, at #30, was a worthy pick after #24, too (which includes world-famous bust R. Jay Soward). Very weak 2nd round, as well, though Drew Brees was the first selection in it.

2001:
#24: Willie Middlebrooks (DB, Den)
#28: Derrick Gibson (DB, Oak)

Two complete stiffs. Reggie Wayne went at #30, Todd Heap at #31, Alge Crumpler at #35, and Chad Johnson the following pick. There were some other good picks in the 2nd round as well.

2002:
#24: Ed Reed (S, Bal)
#28: Jerramy Stevens (TE, Sea)

Well, I'd trade just about anyone not named Tom Brady, Ladainian Tomlinson, or Peyton Manning in the league for Ed Reed, so that's one #24 pick I'd like to keep (and Stevens isn't awful, either). The end of the 1st round saw Charles Grant and Lito Sheppard at #25 and #26, but the 2nd round was pretty weak, with famous Patriot names Jabar Gaffney, Reche Caldwell, Deion Branch, and Andre Davis all getting selected.

2003:
#24: Dallas Clark (TE, Ind)
#28: Andre Woolfolk (CB, Ten)

Clark is a stud, but Woolfolk... well, I remember he was a Senior Bowl riser who was considered very raw, but he's apparently become a decent cornerback despite injuries. Notable picks include Larry Johnson (#27), Nick Barnett (#29), Nnamdi Asomugha (#31), Charles Tillman (#35), Eugene Wilson (#36), and Rashean Mathis (#39).

2004:
#24: Steven Jackson (RB, StL)
#28: Chris Gamble (CB, Car)

Here we get a guy who's becoming a very good running back and a good cornerback in Gamble. Notable selections after this include Mike Jenkins (#29), Kevin Jones (#30), Ben Watson (#32), Karlos Dansby (#33), Chris Snee (#34), Julius Jones (#43), and Bob Sanders (#44). This is probably the best year of all for the end of the first/early second, as even guys who I didn't include on this list have become contributors, if not household names.

2005:
#24: Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
#28: Luis Castillo (DT, SD)

Well, one hit and one question mark. Castillo's turned into a very solid member of San Diego's defensive line, but the jury's still out on Rodgers because of Favre. Notable picks after this include Jason Campbell (#25), Heath Miller (#30), Logan Mankins (#32), Reggie Brown (#33), and Lofa Tatupu (#45).

Just for sake of comparison, here's 2006 (including 1-5):
#1: Mario Williams (DE, Hou)
#2: Reggie Bush (RB, NO)
#3: Vince Young (QB, Ten)
#4: D'Brickashaw Ferguson (OT, NYJ)
#5: AJ Hawk (LB, GB)

#24: Jonathan Joseph (CB, Cin)
#28: Mercedes Lewis (TE, Jax)

Early looks show alot of potential from the top 5 and nothing much from the 24 and 28 spot, but it's still way too early to call.

Here's some other notables (bad or good) from the past 15 years or so at 24-32 or so, for comparison:
Andy Katzenmoyer (#28, 1999)
Patrick Kerney (#30, 1999)
Al Wilson (#31, 1999)... could've had him instead of Big Kat... d'oh
Donovin Darius (#25, 1998)
Alan Faneca (#26, 1998)
John Avery (#29, 1998)... CFL superstar
Chad Scott (#24, 1997)
Jim Druckenmiller (#26, 1997)
Rae Carruth (#27, 1997)... Death Row superstar
Trevor Pryce (#28, 1997)
Chris Canty (#29, 1997)... Canty was so bad that he actually got cut from an AFL2 team a couple years ago (not even the top Arena League, their minor league)
Eric Moulds (#24, 1996)
Ray Lewis (#26, 1996)
Derrick Brooks (#28, 1995)

That's about it. There have been many more stiffs at the ends of rounds as there have been at the beginning. It's just the guys who go in the top 5 who bust are usually legendary, guys towards the end just fade out and go their ways as average backups or eventually just disappear from football. The only problem here comes from money. It's far more likely that you'll get a superstar in the first 5 picks, but a bust up there on the level of a Ryan Leaf or Tim Couch means you're paying ridiculous money and potentially crippling your franchise for years to come.

Gon_Trevil

Most of your post actually proves my point right. And I understand that there will be more stiffs at the end of the round than at the beginning, but the main difference is: Two first rounders in the 20s give you 2 chances to get a good player, with the possibility of both of them being good if you have a savvy GM (which the Patriots do); and you can sign them to nice cap friendly contracts instead of messing up your cap situation with a top 5 pick who, while he may turn out to be a decent player, will probably hinder you more cap-wise than he will help on the field.

smg93

I can see that both of you have defended both sides very well. If I had to choose however, the draft is such a crapshoot that I would almost always take the two picks rather than trade both to move up the draft order. That's just based on the simple fact that you give yourself more chances to succeed, the more picks you have.

Willie55

This just proves the draft is a crap shoot and clowns like Mel Kiper have made a living out from it.

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homerpatsfan

i have to agree two picks are better than one.

homerpatsfan

one player does not make a team! there is no masiah in football.

homerpatsfan

Messiah, Sp

Fencer

Except for Calvin Johnson, nobody in or near the top 5 fills anything close to a need on this team.

Leron Landry is next-closest.

Paying up for a rookie replacement for Matt Light or our OLB trio would be beyond overkill.