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Old 03-06-2007, 02:30 PM   #1
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...it suddenly occurred to me as the FA period has come to a screeching halt for the moment, that Miami JUST might have screwed themselves by trading Welker.

Here's my thought. Under the trade Miami gets our 2nd (60) and 7th (4th from the bottom, whatever that is). IF they had gone with the normal RFA format and NOT signed the offer sheet, the Fins would have received our second (60), PLUS a comp pick in next year's draft. THAT pick, depending on how Welker played COULD have been as high as a 4th or 5th. At worst they would wind up with a 7th 4 picks lower than what we gave them.

Granted there is some risk involved, but based on last years figure I think they would have gotten at least a 5th. SO WE WIN BTW does this thought have any merit?

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Old 03-06-2007, 02:34 PM   #2
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Default Re: looking for confirmation on this thought...

Quote:
Originally Posted by patfanken View Post
...it suddenly occurred to me as the FA period has come to a screeching halt for the moment, that Miami JUST might have screwed themselves by trading Welker.

Here's my thought. Under the trade Miami gets our 2nd (60) and 7th (4th from the bottom, whatever that is). IF they had gone with the normal RFA format and NOT signed the offer sheet, the Fins would have received our second (60), PLUS a comp pick in next year's draft. THAT pick, depending on how Welker played COULD have been as high as a 4th or 5th. At worst they would wind up with a 7th 4 picks lower than what we gave them.

Granted there is some risk involved, but based on last years figure I think they would have gotten at least a 5th. SO WE WIN BTW does this thought have any merit?
Sadly, no: the comp picks are only awarded for (eligible) unrestricted FAs.
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Old 03-06-2007, 02:39 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by patfanken View Post
...it suddenly occurred to me as the FA period has come to a screeching halt for the moment, that Miami JUST might have screwed themselves by trading Welker.

Here's my thought. Under the trade Miami gets our 2nd (60) and 7th (4th from the bottom, whatever that is). IF they had gone with the normal RFA format and NOT signed the offer sheet, the Fins would have received our second (60), PLUS a comp pick in next year's draft. THAT pick, depending on how Welker played COULD have been as high as a 4th or 5th. At worst they would wind up with a 7th 4 picks lower than what we gave them.

Granted there is some risk involved, but based on last years figure I think they would have gotten at least a 5th. SO WE WIN BTW does this thought have any merit?
It's the other side of what I have been saying regarding the Pats. The Pats by trading a 7th for Welker remain entitled to a draft compensation if they lose three or more to FA. And that is likely with Graham, TBC, Gay, Pass or Sauerbrun. I thought Dillon was included but his release removes him from compensation. I'll bet at least one of Graham and TBC signs for $5 million per a year which is 3rd round compensation.

I'd trade a 7 for a 3 any day!
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Old 03-06-2007, 02:39 PM   #4
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Default Re: looking for confirmation on this thought...

Quote:
Originally Posted by patfanken View Post
.... Miami JUST might have screwed themselves by trading Welker.

.... IF they had gone with the normal RFA format and NOT signed the offer sheet, the Fins would have received our second (60), PLUS a comp pick in next year's draft. THAT pick, depending on how Welker played COULD have been as high as a 4th or 5th. At worst they would wind up with a 7th 4 picks lower than what we gave them.

.... based on last years figure I think they would have gotten at least a 5th. SO WE WIN BTW does this thought have any merit?
That's a solid addition to the other reasons why the Patriots' f/o beat the Phins f/o this time around.

But i believe that the comp picks are allocated principally by the compensation that it took to lure away the player
- not mainly how well they play.

EDIT: oh, boy! Sounds like DaBruinz knocks it out.
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Old 03-06-2007, 02:40 PM   #5
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Default Re: looking for confirmation on this thought...

Quote:
Originally Posted by patfanken View Post
...it suddenly occurred to me as the FA period has come to a screeching halt for the moment, that Miami JUST might have screwed themselves by trading Welker.

Here's my thought. Under the trade Miami gets our 2nd (60) and 7th (4th from the bottom, whatever that is). IF they had gone with the normal RFA format and NOT signed the offer sheet, the Fins would have received our second (60), PLUS a comp pick in next year's draft. THAT pick, depending on how Welker played COULD have been as high as a 4th or 5th. At worst they would wind up with a 7th 4 picks lower than what we gave them.

Granted there is some risk involved, but based on last years figure I think they would have gotten at least a 5th. SO WE WIN BTW does this thought have any merit?
Unless they have changed the compensation system, RFAs and Franchise Free Agents are NOT included in the compensation pick equation because the teams already get compensation.
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Old 03-06-2007, 03:02 PM   #6
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After considering the compensation possibilities, the Pats would have been smart to not just release Dillon.

They could have done the same thing except asking him to sign a FA contract for veteran minimum, with no option year reserve. They could offer to include a ROFR to increase Dillon's future contract negotiation position, if he wanted it.

Dillon would be free to look around just as if he were released, but the Pats would be entitled to league administered draft pick compensation in the event he decided to sign elsewhere. It wouldn't have cost him anything nor the team who signed him, but would have helped the Pats, the following year. the Pats would be obligated to carry him as a possible returnee so their training camp roster would be reduced to 79 from 80 with his name added.

Certainly a no skin of his rump consideration, in exchange for being released, as he wished.

This would be a good thing to do routinely for those players in lieu of being just plainly released. Some wouldn't do it, but for everyone that did, or vets looking to catch on elsewhere an early release (or this no-option-year null contract) and subsequently resigned elsewhere, it would offset a Pats FA signing.

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Old 03-06-2007, 03:08 PM   #7
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Default Re: looking for confirmation on this thought...

The Patriots do not get any compensation for signing Welker as an RFA. They traded for him under his old contract and then signed him to a new contract.

HOWEVER a point which has not been mentioned to my knowledge regarding the 7th round pick is this:

Not only did we throw the Fins a bone and thereby earn some goodwill, BUT we ALSO got the CERTAINTY of knowing Welker is in the fold NOW, and not having to wait 7 days to see if the Fins would match. As any good money manager will tell you, reducing risk is worth sacrificing some reward.

In this case, the Pats get to get on with their free agent dealings (with Stallworth or whomever) having a better handle on what their roster and cap situation are. This allows them to act more decisively and not have to wait, which might conceivably cost them the chance to sign other free agents.
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Old 03-06-2007, 03:16 PM   #8
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If the pats signed him while he was tendered as a RFA as a member of the dolphins, the pats would have paid a 2nd round draft pick as compensation. That is the compensation.

Last edited by JustWinBrady; 03-06-2007 at 03:16 PM..
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Old 03-06-2007, 03:20 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AzPatsFan View Post
After considering the compensation possibilities, the Pats would have been smart to not just release Dillon.

They could have done the same thing except asking him to sign a FA contract for veteran minimum, with no option year reserve. They could offer to include a ROFR to increase Dillon's future contract negotiation position, if he wanted it.

Dillon would be free to look around just as if he were released, but the Pats would be entitled to league administered draft pick compensation in the event he decided to sign elsewhere. It wouldn't have cost him anything nor the team who signed him, but would have helped the Pats, the following year. the Pats would be obligated to carry him as a possible returnee so their training camp roster would be reduced to 79 from 80 with his name added.

Certainly a no skin of his rump consideration, in exchange for being released, as he wished.

This would be a good thing to do routinely for those players in lieu of being just plainly released. Some wouldn't do it, but for everyone that did, or vets looking to catch on elsewhere an early release (or this no-option-year null contract) and subsequently resigned elsewhere, it would offset a Pats FA signing.

comments?
thanks for the info guys, it was just a thought when we were discussing what comp picks the we could expect this April. BTW, AZ, your idea is a good one, though I think it would have a limited lifespan, because once the league figure out what teams were doing they plug that loophole. If knew someone in the Pats FO, it would be worth forewarding the idea.

Of course I'd be sure to attribute credit to you since I wouldn't want to get a 2 month suspension.
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Old 03-06-2007, 04:04 PM   #10
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The Patriots do not get any compensation for signing Welker as an RFA. They traded for him under his old contract and then signed him to a new contract.

HOWEVER a point which has not been mentioned to my knowledge regarding the 7th round pick is this:

Not only did we throw the Fins a bone and thereby earn some goodwill, BUT we ALSO got the CERTAINTY of knowing Welker is in the fold NOW, and not having to wait 7 days to see if the Fins would match. As any good money manager will tell you, reducing risk is worth sacrificing some reward.

In this case, the Pats get to get on with their free agent dealings (with Stallworth or whomever) having a better handle on what their roster and cap situation are. This allows them to act more decisively and not have to wait, which might conceivably cost them the chance to sign other free agents.
promised land,

You misunderstand. Under the CBA a team is entitiltled to league adminstered draft compensation if the number of FAs lost in signings exceeds the number signed. By trading for Welker as opposed to signing him as a FA, that is one less FA signing counting against the Patriots.

If they end up losing more FA than ones they sign then compensation is awarded. Originally the Pats would have 4 FA signings, AD, Welker, Brady and Morris now they have but three. If they lose, as seems the case Graham and TBC, and two others from among Pass? Sauerbrun? Seau? Izzo? Brown? Mruczkowski? Kight? Bam? then they are entitled to compensation which could be anywhere from a 3 to a 7, round pick. the worst that they do is get a 7 back a year later...
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