patfanken

....the day before FA starts. This is a great day to speculate because by next week EVERYTHING could change completely.

1. All of a sudden, I'm not so worried about the LB situation. Now that the Bengals have cut Brian Simmons, there seems to be just TOO many decent veteran LB options to think that the Pats can't pick one or two guys who can thrive in this system, and still not break the bank. (Simmons, Edwards, Spikes, Fletcher, Thomas, Seau, right off the top of my head, and there are others,) If there is one position in FA that seems to have a little depth its LB

I'm still holding on to the glimmer of hope that AThomas could be signed. The good news is that we are hearing very little about the Pats in connection to Thomas. That's usually a good sign the way the Pats operate. The bad news is, based on some of the signings thus far, it looks like it will take an outrageous sum of money to sign him (in the $8-9MM/yr range with a $15+MM signing bonus.

2. Do you really think that some team is going to blow away TBC with an offer. I'm not so sure. I think there is a better shot of him staying than going. Think about it, the guy has a chance to line up next to either RSeymour, or TWarren. That has to improve his chances to excell. Why take a few extra buck to play next to nobodies and have your career stagnate.

3. Since I'm still on the LBs, let me AGAIN reitterate my opinion that NO LB that we draft this time will have a significant effect on the Defense...next season. I truely believe that unless you are an LT type player, and there are no guys like this when the Pats draft; it takes 3-5 years to develop into the starter you hope to find. That is why the Pats are so comfortable signing veteran guys. They have already BEEN though the development process, ON SOMEONE ELSE'S DIME, and its easier to project them.

Bruschi, Vrabel, Colvin, TBC, Thomas, etc all had very forgettable first couple of years in the league. They were all by and large, special teams guys who occassionally played on situational defenses. So when I hear names like Spencer, Moss, and Moses slated for one of the 2 picks, I want people to understand that NONE of those guys are going to be impact players in 2007.

4. Moving on to the WR position. Its been reported that the Phins will tender Wes Welker so that it would take a 2nd round pick as compensation. My question is that a second THIS year, or next? If its next year, I say go get him. With Brown likely to retire, he'd be a very good slot receiver, who can add value by taking care of BOTH KR & PR chores. Besides his production, I like the fact that he proven so durable, despite his size. Like I have said, he's Troy Brown, with more speed, and WAY younger.

But like LB there seems to be a slew of WRs that are coming on to the market place. I think the Pats will do OK in picking up one of the many guys who are out there. I just happen to think Welker fits a number of needs, but I wouldn't hate it if Kevin Curtis slipped our way, and BB has aways been a fan of Eric Moulds...at least when we play against him.

5. You know how you feel when you think back at the Colt game and can't believe we DIDN'T win. Well that feeling is exactly the same one Charger fans have. I use to think about how OTHER fans must feel after losing a big playoff game, but I never thought I'd feel that way myself.

6. Interesting thought by Ozzie Newsome. He gave an interview, where he opined that he's glad his Ravens DON'T have a lot of cap room THIS year. He feels that with more than a dozen teams with more than $20MM to spend, and a relatively weak FA class; there will a LOT of teams who will sign players who NEVER produce up to the level of their contracts. Still I'd rather have the cap room myself, and at least have the OPPORTUNITY to make some mistakes.

7. I used to have a pretty clear idea of what I wanted in this draft. Now I'm not so sure. I've heard a compelling argument that this is NOT the year to be having 2 low first round picks. Word is that are only 5 or 6 true impact players in this draft. After that there is going to be little differences between what you can get at 15, and what you can get at 70. So I'm not going out on a limb to think that the Pats my very well trade out of the first round with one of the picks and look to add another first day pick this year (1 first- 2 seconds - 2 thirds, or maybe get a third this year and a BETTER first round NEXT year. Or they might do just the opposite and get rid of the pick by trading UP to get a particular player.

8. I'm going to miss David Graham - He was a solid player who played hard every game he was out there, and that's maybe why the Pats won't shell out the big buck to retain him. Some think he played so hard, that he was constantly hurting himself. There was also reports that he turned down a contract that averaged $4MM/yr, which is franchise type money for TEs. That gives you an idea how big the initial contacts are going to be.

9. Finally I'll go into fantasy land and name my most realistic FA and Draft

FA: The Pats sign
Junior Seau - LB
Donnie Edwards LB
Kevin Curtis WR
Kevin Kasperhard (sp) S

draft: The Pats pick on the first day.

1 Patrick Willis - Willis drops to the high teens, so the Pats package their 2 first round picks for Wills at 17 and a 3rd and 4th round this year. Now they have someone who can get some play in and ILB rotation THIS year, and be ready to start when Tedy hangs them up in 2008.

2. They Then use their own third rounder to move up into top of the second to select MMcCauley - I don't think he's worth a #1, but if Pat Hill can give BB a good explaination of why he had the drop off this year, he's a first round talent and would be a value here. He has all the measurables. He's tall with long arms, and with the speed an quickness to be one of the top CB's BUT he didn't play that way this year during the season, or during the Senior bowl. If there IS a good reason, that this was the exception rather than the rule, the Pats would get a steal here. Yes its a risk, but worth it IMHO.

3. They now have a mid round 3rd rounder and they should pick up the best WR available,

Enjoy the read, because by Saturday, it could all be meaningless

#56300ex

David Graham ?

BelichickFan

That's what you get when you combine Daniel Graham with his replacement David Thomas

Remix 6

Kevin Kaspahard lol.. w/o looking i'll try and spell

Kaesviharn

signbabybrady

that looks right but at the very least it is much closer

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captain stone

Interesting stuff as usual, PFK. Some comments:

1) At least one starting-calibre ILB and OLB, each, needs to be signed before the draft. And one quality backup/STer, for each side, would be nice, too. They're out there, too, so the FO has no excuses.

2) TBC will play for the vet minimum, no more, maybe for the jest. No loss there, as long as upgrades replace him.

3) No LB drafted may make an impact this season, but they need to be drafted, and on the first day, regardless.

4) If Kevin Curtis (Plan A) is unavailable, then Wes Welker, for a 2nd-rounder, is certainly food for thought. Drew Bennett is Plan B. There are some potentially quality #3-4 WRs with a lower sticker price, too.

7) I'm not adverse to trading one of the 1st-rounders, esp. if a compensatory 3rd-rounder is given us.

8) Grahambo won't come cheap, but the FO needs to think long and hard before deciding not to match his top offer. Thomas and - most especially - Watson don't bring his blocking ability to the party.

9) Michael Lewis and Terrence Holt are my top FA choices at Safety; Seau and London F-B at ILB; and AT and Antwan Peek at OLB.
As for the draft, ass-u-ming 4 first-day picks, at least 3 of them must be defensive players; best case is one each of ILB, OLB and DB.

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jimmyjames

I was watching the combine when the DB's were working out and Deion Sanders was one of the commentators. he had some pretty interesting things to say about McCauley...not that he knew him persoanlly, but hearing that he had such a big dropoff and was seemingly avoiding conatct this year, Deion's take was that he was a kid being given bad advice by agents &/or family. He said that a lot of these kids -get people in their ear telling them not to do anything to jeopardize getting injured and missing out on the big pay day. He went on to say that it was too bad because in the end a kid like McCauley was going to lose a lot of money for not playing hard. Deion also said he was interested in personally reaching out to the kid to try to help him get his head on straight. At first pass you would think it ironic to have Prime Time giving someone advice about getting his head on straight, but he was an amazing player who worked very hard to back up all the smack talk. And he had very high praise for MacCauley's physical talents.

They also said that at the combine when Deion was coming out of FSU he ran a 4.19 40 - yipes!

big mike

I'm suspecting that many teams are more willing to let high priced LBs go this year, because the draft this year looks to be chock full of many potentially very good LBs.

To me, that makes no sense. The first contract of a player is MUCH cheaper than the first free agent contract they sign - a big incentive to have a younger team than older one. Also, this notion that a defensive player can't be useful in the first 3-5 years is just plain silly.

Colvin averaged over 10 sacks a year his first few years in Chicago. Is that "forgettable"? Bruschi, Vrabel, TBC, and I think also Thomas, were all DEs in college switching to LB in the pros. So, of course it's going to take them a while to learn the new position. But, if you draft a guy who has played LB in college, that's not the case then, is it?

Are you saying that guys like Posluzny, Timmons, Beason, Patrick Willis, etc in this year's draft aren't going to make an impact until 3-5 years from now?

Most likely not - because those guys are DEs who would be changing position. What about a guy like Posluzny, who has played both ILB and OLB? Or Tim Shaw, who was an LB who moved to DE due to innjuries on the DL?

Why give up a 2nd round pick for Welker when this is a fairly deep draft at WR, and someone like Brandon Stokley, a more proven version of Welker, is available without needing to give up a draft pick?

But, I thought you said rookies can't make an impact for 3-5 years?

At any rate, unfortunately after the combine, I think it's highly unlikely Willis drops that far.

amazinPats

w/o looking, Kaesviharn looks about right. I can tell you that it's a Laotian name. His mom must have been from Laos (or maybe Thailand.)