cstjohn17

I have been checking this site out for the matchups each week, I trust the Accuscore more than the experts.

From their website
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
All Regular Season and Playoffs
Over 1,000 Players / Over 70 Statistics
78% Game Pick Accuracy, 61% ATS

NE-Indy
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playof...?series=nweind
52% - 47% advantage NE
- average score 25.5 - 24.3
- extremely close prediction, I agree with the computer, if the Pats can hold the Colts under 25 they will win the game

NE-SD
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playof...?series=nwesdg
- it is not posted any more but I think accuscore had it at 60-40 in favor of San Diego
- average score of 27 -23

NE-Jets
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playof...?series=nyjnwe
- it is not posted any more but I think accuscore had it at 70-30 in favor of NE
- average score of 26- 17 (I think)

GameDay

Accuscore (R) claims 61% ATS this year, but my colleagues recorded only 53% for them on games of their interests, which is just as good as throwing darts.

There are cases of "selective" ATS. For example, the spread can be 3 , 3.5, or 4 for a game, depending on bookies. A person can post-select the spread that favors their prediction.

If Accuscore (R) can beat the ATS market, then the whole world can follow them and LasVegas would be out of business (or the line will be very volatile, shift like crazy) (The same as anyone predicting the stock market).

Just like any Monte Carlo simulation, it all depends on the assumed capability of the teams. In our case, if we assume the recent Colts D is for real, and the Pats O is as bad as it looks in the SD game, then the Colts should be favored heavily (by 5.5).

But if we lower the weight of the last 2 games, (IOTW, the Colts D is not as good as it looked and the Pats O is not as bad/good as it looked against SD and Jets), then Pats should win by 3.4. Both Colts D and Pats O are really bipolar, which makes prediction having a wide spread.

Meanwhile Pats D is very consistent. Our last projection for SD-NE was 26-24 SD. The 5 points that SD did not get could be contributed to better NE special team play (punt fumble, 3 Pts), and the D played better than expected (worth a few points more against SD, e. g. Colvin INT and other fumbles). They were the one who quietly won the game in SD. (And dismissed as "luck" or miracle in the shadow of Pats offense).

OldEnglandPatriot

<< If Accuscore (R) can beat the ATS market, then the whole world can follow them and LasVegas would be out of business (or the line will be very volatile, shift like crazy) >>

Your post is interesting but this bit doesn't make much sense really. I know nothing of Accuscore, but even if they were beating the spreads at 60% the fact is the whole world will not be following them.

Most people will never be aware of them; many people aren't interested in 60 percent winners and go chasing these ridiculous services that claim incredible winning percentages; many people (myself included) prefer to make their own picks.

Michael

I'm looking at this game in No Limit Poker terms. The Pats have AA and the Colts have AK suited. The Pats have the winning hand going in and are favored to win but the Colts could hit a straight or a flush. Its almost a coin toss. In the past I'd say I'll know by the end of the first quarter. Because it was usually which team will show up? But, after seeing them come back from an 11 point deficit against SD so late in the game I will not give up on them until the last knee is taken.

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GameDay

That's the reason for the "IF". The point is nobody can beat the market (except for statistical chance, e. g. 1000000 coin flippers in "Random Walk Down the Wall Street")

I just quoted the Accuscore claim on their web page. The people who set the spread also use a variety of tools to ensure that they are correct (in terms of probability) and have their "expected" pay function, the same as the insurance industry.

I don't know much of the high-roller industry, but I agree that small-bet people like you and me do our own picks, that's where the fun is, right?

Iverson

AA vs AKs is not 53%/47% nor is it even close to a coin flip.

AA will win 87.23% of the time.