PonyExpress

Summary

The Pats hold statistical advantages over the Jets in almost every area, but the Jets' underrated offensive skill position players, savvy Qb/O-coordinator, and dynamic special teams' play will make for a closer game than expected. The Pats may suffer some hiccups and inconsistency due to youth and inexperience at key positions, but the end result will still be a Patriot victory, though not the blow-out the home crowd hopes for.

Data.

According to footballoutsiders.com, the Jets have the best receiver in this game (Jericho Cotchery #25, Caldwell #32, Coles #49, Brown #59), the best rb (Leon Washington #9, Dillon #21, Maroney #29), and the best pass-catching TE (Chris Baker #5, Watson #26, Graham #27). Interestingly, though David Thomas fails to make the main list due to limited opportunities, he rates as the highest ranked pass catching TE in the entire NFL. The Pats have the best receiving rbs (Faulk #11, Maroney #16, L. Washington #18). Tom Brady is the #11 Qb, Pennington #14. The Pats O-line ranks #11 at run-blocking, #13 at pass protection; the Jets' O-line ranks #25 in run blocking, #17 in pass protection. The Pats' front 7 ranks #8 against the run and #9 at pass-rushing; the Jets' front 7 ranks #32 against the run and #25 at pass-rushing.

Overall, on Offense the Pats rank #7 for the whole season, #8 over the past 8 weeks (the #6 passing offense, #8 rushing offense). The Jets rank #15 for the whole season, #14 over the past 8 weeks (#12 passing, #18 rushing).

Overall, on Defense the Pats rank #8 for the season, #5 over the past 6 weeks (#7 against the pass, #10 against the run). The Jets rank #26 for the season, #25 over the past 8 weeks (#21 against the pass, #32 against the run).

On Special Teams, the Pats rank #8 overall, #9 over the past 8 weeks. However, the Pats are sub-par in the FG kicking game, and in the punting game. The Jets are #5 overall, #5 in the past 8 weeks, and excellent across the board in all areas on special teams except punt returns.


The Jet Threat.

The Jets have underrated skill position players in an offense that has been orchestrated well by Pennington and Schottenheimer. The key offensive players who can hurt the Pats are Washington, Cotchery and Baker. Coles was knocked silly by Z. Thomas in Week 16, and seems to still be suffering the after-effects, in addition to having a very overrated year production-wise. Washington is very underrated as a runner considering the marginal Jets' O-line, and is an upper echelon threat as a receiver out of the backfield. Baker has excellent, reliable hands, and Cotchery is on the verge of #1 receiver status and is actually better than Coles. Cotchery may be the key player in this game for the Jets, and the Jets are likely scheming a way to attack James Sanders due to his inexperience and lack of speed.

Pennington, this year, has almost performed as well as Brady. The Jets' defense, however, Mangini's baby, is as putrid as the Pats' defense was last year before BB took it over down the stretch. Pennington, Schottenheimer and special teams coach Westhoff are the keys to the Jets' success. The Jets' supposedly improved defense is benefiting from the ball control offense run so successfully by Pennington against a very weak schedule.

The Pats' offense

The Pats' offense struggled last game against the Jets. In this game, to move the ball most effectively, the Pats should (1) throw the ball to Faulk and Maroney out of the backfield, Thomas as a TE, and Caldwell at Wr (2) run the ball with Dillon as a feature back, spelled by Maroney. Watson, Graham, Brown have become inefficient pieces in the passing game. Interestingly, much maligned rookie Chad Jackson, in limited opportunities, has been more effective than most think, catching 68% of the passes thrown to him. If he could have stayed healthy, produced at the current rate and had 50 passes thrown his way, he would have qualified as the #8 receiver in the NFL in production per play. The potential is there folks, and he may get a small opportunity on a designed play in this game.

How the Pats can lose

The Pats can lose this game is a few ways. 1) Allowing a big play to Cotchery or Washington due to a defensive breakdown (2) allowing Chris Baker to be a red zone target (3) poor punting and FG kicking by the Pats (4) allowing long kickoff returns to Justin Miller (5) playing professional juggler Ben Watson over David Thomas (6) fumbling, which they did as much as any team in the NFL over the course of the season.

Conclusion

Not everything will go right, and not everything will go wrong. Cotchery and Washington will make a few plays, Justin Miller will have a good run back or two; The Pats main weakness may be youth and inexperience at key positions: David Thomas, James Sanders and Maroney may stumble a bit in their first playoff games, Gostkowski may miss a makeable FG. These possible gaffes could turn a game which should be a blow-out into something at times uncomfortable for the home crowd. The final score will be 24-16 Pats.

DarrylS

The telling stat of this game is:

"The Pats O-line ranks #11 at run-blocking, #13 at pass protection; the Jets' O-line ranks #25 in run blocking, #17 in pass protection. The Pats' front 7 ranks #8 against the run and #9 at pass-rushing; the Jets' front 7 ranks #32 against the run and #25 at pass-rushing."


The loss by the Pats was a fluke, not to minimize the Jets, but with Seymour just returning from elbow probs& playing out of position.. Warren and Neal out, our trench folk were seriously depleted.as best we can tell all of these guys are healthy and playing extremely well. If the Pats continue to minimize turnovers, as they have the past three games, this is a relatively easy win for us. The 24 -16 score will be pretty close.

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"Being the best doesn't mean you always win. It just means you win more than anyone else".. tweet from Kurt Warner to Tom Brady.

Gumby

not sure I buy that. Thomas is nice and a change up and is threatening to be competitve to be a starter; but Watson is a starter until injured or proved otherwise.

I think if pats come out punching the football down their throats with the run and offset with screens/playaction they will control this game. The scoreboard will, as in most patriots games, appear at the finish to be closer than what game film will show.

PatsFan37

Nice analysis, Pony. A lot of good work and much appreciated.

I've read FO and I have trouble with their stats, like so many other stats. Much as they try, I think it's difficult to separate OL play from RB play, even from QB and WR play, where a good passing attack can make a RB look good. In other words, Addai is good, but would he be as good on a team with a weaker passing attack. I know FO purports to separate those things, but I think that's particularly difficult to do.

As an example, rating Thomas as the league's best TE. Defenses stay up late game-planning against Gates and and Watson, but I doubt they put much thought into Thomas' one unexpected break-out game.

It really is a team game, and I've come to believe a lot more in the subjective analysis of someone who watches the player attacking the opponent and judges the performance of that player, rather than measuring yards and tackles and that sort of thing. I mean, it's a lot better than "yeah, baby we're gonna kick their @ss", but I just don't trust the stats.

As for the game, I don't worry about Thomas, if Watson is healthy, I doubt Thomas will play much. I don't worry about Sanders, it's his 2nd year and he's played a bit this season. I worry more about Samuel, if BB hasn't reined in the tendency to gamble. And I sure wouldn't count on Jackson having any more touches this week than any other week.

BB will dance with the one what brung ya. That means Maroney, Dillon, Faulk, Watson, Graham, Caldwell, Brown and a little of Gaffney and Thomas, just like any other game. Jackson will play, but won't be a significant target.

That's my guess.

PonyExpress

Skepticism of stats is healthy, and I appreciate your POV. However, nobody claimed Dave Thomas was the best TE in football. Only that in very limited opportunities he has been the most productive TE in the passing game, per play, in the NFL. No doubt his effectiveness would dimidnish with increased opportunities, like a hitter batting .400 over a small part of the baseball season. Still, the skill set is there. As far as BB "dancing with the one that brung him", the last 3 games of the season, when the Pats finally started playing playoff caliber football, Watson was on the bench and Thomas was playing. In addition to his better hands, he is an underrated blocker, already better than B. Watson according to profootballweekly. As far as Jackson being a significant target, I never suggested it. Only that he has been more effective than people assume, when on the field, and a designed play or two for him would not be a surprise.

Jimke

Tom Brady is a better quarterback that Chad Pennington.

However, if the Jets can pressure Tom and the Pats cannot do

likewise to Chad, the Jets will win.

Keegs

The game hasn't started yet... thus there is nothing to analyze....

Who do you guys think you are, Alfred Einstein?

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PonyExpress

Why are you here?

Pat the Pats Fan

He seemed to be effective in punt returns last week, had an explosiveness that was just short of coming out.

goldenaleus

You mean Albert...Alfred was his cousin and Alfred was a musicologist and critic...you Einstein.