Brady'sButtBoy

Yes, yes, stats provide a limited picture to be sure. However, when you consider we've lost our number 1 and 2 WR's, it is a bit reassuring to discover-

Only FIVE potential playoff teams average more yds/game through the air than the Pats. (Saints, Colts, Eagels, Bengals, Cowboys)

We are 9th in scoring in NFL (tied with Jax, by the way).

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JoeSixPat

It's an interesting question - seems to me that opposing D's aren't all that worried about us beating them in the long game.

They assign a CB to Caldwell, and often double cover Watson because #1.) they can and #2.) they know that statistically there is a VERY high likelihood its going to him or Caldwell. There's not too many other players they need to worry about beating them deep. This frees up players to move forward and pressure the QB, and make sure that the short to mid-range yardage is contained.

Everyone else, including both Safeties quite often, come forward to the line of scrimmage - sometimes dropping back into coverage, oftentimes blitzing or pressuring Brady, requiring an already thin receiving corps to keep a decent TE like Graham into block instead of being another receiver.

Maybe, if they kept the safeties back in mid- to deep coverage both Watson and Caldwell would have a tougher time, but I think DC's have seen that they are better off putting pressure on Brady they way the Dolphins and other teams have.

So in the end they wind up allowing a decent amount of yardage, but are able to sack & pressure Brady, often resulting in game changing turnovers - hence the high number of offensive mistakes and general inconsistency in the offense.

I know I've seen this scenario happen numerous times in games - whether it's become a trend I'm not sure - but I think it would explain a discrepancy in statistics that suggests our offense is good when one must logicially agree with Tom Brady that it's been inconsistent at best

If what I've postulated is indeed playing out, it would suggest that one shouldn't put too much emphasis on statistics. (99% of all people know that!)

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pencilneckgeek

First off, JSP,

Getting Maroney back will help. With Dillon in there, the defenses can pack it in and blitz up the middle, knowing he's gonna have a hard time turning the corner to get to the seconary. If it's a passing play they get a push in Brady's face. With Maroney's ability to get outside and downfield quickly, the safeties need to play more conservative - not as much as if we had, say, a Dieon Branch at wideout, but more than they have these last two weeks.

BradyManny

This Sunday is when Jabar Gaffney and or Chad Jackson start to step it up, I really think both these guys are going to be good in the final weeks and playoffs. I think the main thing is that Brady has to feel trust in these guys, and that only comes with time, and CJ has been injured so much and Gaffney hasn't been around long.

Our passing offense isn't based on the "just throw the ball up and let the receiver make the play" style - like the Jags are for instance.

JoeSixPat

Yes, Maroney definately will help. But having the defense stacked at the line also limits the effectiveness of the running game, as well as the short and mid-range game. That to me makes what Dillon, Maroney, Faulk and Watson have been doing all the more impressive... and I wonder what they'd be able to do if they had a true deep game threat stretching the field.

Conversely, it also suggests that Caldwell might have an even tougher time if both safeties were kept deep instead of playing close to the line. In effect it's a bend but don't break gameplan that I think has been a great benefit to Caldwell's stats.

Don't get me wrong - I'm pleased with the contribution Caldwell's provided, but I do think he's benefited from the fact that Defenses don't consider anyone a breakaway threat once they double cover Watson and keep a CB behind Caldwell.

Defenses prefer to pressure Brady and stack defenders at the line, forcing mistakes and turnovers. To a large extent it's worked, but give Brady and the boys credit - 10 wins is impressive with this WR lineup.

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JoeSixPat

Anything Jackson does this season is gravy for me - next season is the true test for a rook WR.

Gaffney though is another story. This is a situation where the stats DON'T seem to give him credit for his improvement., but my "eyeball test" likes what it's seen from Gaffney.

I really think he's about to turn a corner and be a big contributor. Unfortunately it's not much more than a gut feeling.

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pencilneckgeek

Chad has to learn to run block well enough in practice to get on the field enough in the game to make a difference, unless that Pats are behind.

BradyManny

I think this week will be a better barometer, we had such a short field last week, it was hard to tell much of anything from the O - I agree, Gaffney looks better, production should start to match, one would hope/think.

jczxohn1

Good analysis JSP, it started with the Denver game last year. Lynch was in Tommy's face all day. Any team that can do it will. Getting Maroney and Faulk in space seems to be the way to beat it until we have some deep threats. Incidentally, IMO, Kaczur did a better job last yr at LT than Light is doing this year.

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wcda

I think the major thing wrong is it take to long for a pass play to develop.