PonyExpress

Cincinnati is an immature team coming off an emotional victory, which some of them celebrated to excess (read C. Henry et. al.). Palmer is immobile compared with his former self. The Cinci O-line has been troubled by protection problems. The Cinci defense has been decimated at LB. The front 4 is competent but not exceptional with Smith and Adams. The secondary, while ballhawking, thrives on jumping routes for the big play, a risky tactic born of confidence in their offense's ability to score 24+ points a gain. They have seen the video of the Pats sub-par performances, and the tendency for a let down will be somewhat magnified by a justifiable lack of respect for a struggling opponent, history be damned. Human nature will dictate that. The crowd will be crazed, raucous, a parade of appreciation pre-game for defeating the hated Steelers. The Bengals will come out on an emotional high, and go quickly for the knockout to throw red meat to the lions in the crowd. They are an emotional, fiery group.

The Pats are going to go with the 4-3 in this game. It is their best way to put pressure on Palmer, the key to the game. They will unleash Seymour, Warren, Green, Wilfork and Wright on the inconsistent Cinci O-line and the wobbly Levi Jones. The intent will be to throw off Palmer's timing from the get go. The lack of LBer speed in the 4-3 for the Pats is not a huge concern because Rudi Johnson is a between the tackles runner with limited ability to get to the corners. Whatever the outcome of the game, the Pats will knock Palmer silly. The Cinci receivers will make their plays... but the Cinci run game will be spotty, and Palmer is going to take his punishment. There is a good chance Chris Henry will be BENCHED for this game by Marvin Lewis as a statement to his team about extracurricular activities. Housyourmama and Johnson will score in this game; They will go for a quick strike early, trying to demoralize the Pats' already shaky Dbackfield for a 7-0 lead. Cinci will score in this game... 20-27 points.

When the Pats are on offense, Cinci will first try to cheat to the line of scrimmage a la the Broncos, but even this will be unsuccessful to stop the running game, because the Bengal LBers don't match the Bronco's all-world trio. Watson will have a break out game in the neighborhood of 7 catches/70 yards due to break downs among the unproven Bengal LBers, and I expect Gabriel to make his mark. IMO Brady will break out of his funk with an additional week acclimating to his receivers and I expect Maroney/Dillon to combine for 160+ yards against the Bengals' porous front 7. Ideally, Gostkowski will reassert himself; Even without him the team will emerge with a satisfying 31-24, 28-24 victory.

Lockdown06

Wilfork, or if we go 4-3 then both the DTs should have a monstrous game this week - the Bengals starting center is out and i think they're starting a young guard in his place.

PonyExpress

The Bengals are a paper tiger. The euphoria over their pittsburgh victory disguised flaws in their team that will be exposed as the season progresses. (1) They cannot stop the run (2) they have trouble covering Tight Ends (3) Their O[line is inconsistent (4) their QB is gimpy and an injury waiting to happen (5) They have an immature, reckless roster that is set up for another off-field disaster. I've already crossed them off from Super Bowl contention, regardless of the outcome of this game.

Lockdown06

thats true, but as Bill Simmons mentioned in his column today - imagine if they DID get to the superbowl? Half of their roster would be arrested by gametime.

FloridaPatsFan

The NFL seems to be trying to keep the Pats from playing their type of football...Because that type of football is the kind that won championships. The NFL does not want one team winning annual championships.

If the good guys get flagged for quick penalties....specifically defensive pass interference, or personal fouls such as roughing the passer, then we are in for a long afternoon. If they let us bump the recievers a little and keep them honest, and should we get to Palmer and knock him on his back, then we have a chance. But if we get nit picked for every little thing...Basically we are being told to take the loss and move on.

PonyExpress

It is crucial that the Pats weather the early storm. I fully expect the Bengals to ride the wave of emotion from their victory over Pitt and the crazed crowd, and rush out to an early lead. The Pats must hang in their, stay mentally strong and not exhibit frustration if early events go against them, especially in the defensive backfield or offensive passing game. This will be a give and take game, and the mentally strong will survive. No moping on the field, etc. Beat the Bengals up physically at the line of scrimmage and above all attack Palmer. Crush the head and the body will die. Maroney will be in his element, and a break out performance is within reason...

FloridaPatsFan

thanks pony...hell I'm ready to take the field after that motivational post.....

I'm Ron Borges?

Sure thing. Nice write up but you forgot to mention the part where Ellis Hobbs won't play and Hank Poteat will be in the game. Missed that part of the evaluation, did you?

__________________
Go F*** yourself New England.
- Borges' profound message to Pats fans after he's fired from the Globe.

I'm Ron Borges?

Yeah, those teams with talent have no shot. Better to have a bunch of Heath Evans and get beat by every team with a winning record. Those teams don't get crossed off though?

__________________
Go F*** yourself New England.
- Borges' profound message to Pats fans after he's fired from the Globe.

OldEnglandPatriot

Pony, I hope you're right about the result, but not the score as I've taken the under at 46.5

I rate the Bengals rather higher than you, but your analysis is very interesting and informative.