Kirwin Breakdown on Drafting DE's - New England Patriots Forums

kurtinelson · 06-28-2006, 11:33 AM

http://nfl.com/news/story/9519025

Interesting article on drafting DEs featuring a retrospective analysis (based on sack totals) of the Draft class of 2003. Not bad reading in June.

***patchick*** · 06-28-2006, 12:14 PM

I like this article because it actually provides the table of data he worked off of, rather than just cherry-picking numbers. But honestly, I'm not convinced that the data support his suggestions that the later rounds are just as fertile for pash rushers, or that good small-school talent gets overlooked.

Of DEs picked in the first two rounds, 4 of 8 lined up for more than two-thirds of plays last season, 1 of 8 for no plays at all.

Of DEs picked in rounds 3-5, 1 of 10 lined up for more than two-thirds of plays last season, 5 of 10 for no plays at all.

Check that out -- a full half of the DE's selected in rounds 3-5 in 2003 never saw the field last year. Not so fertile.

Meanwhile his "overlooked" small-school guy Umenyiora was taken in round 2, ahead of a raft of guys from from bigger programs. What's more, using sacks as your measure automatically downgrades the bigger guys like Ty Warren and Jarrett Johnson, who don't serve as featured pass rushers in the NFL -- and who never would have even been listed at DE at a smaller college. (Notice that Warren, a successful Big 12 product selected in round 1, is never even mentioned in the article.)

But after saying all this, I really do like the article. It offered something worth thinking about.

arrellbee · 06-28-2006, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patchick

I like this article because it actually provides the table of data he worked off of, rather than just cherry-picking numbers. But honestly, I'm not convinced that the data support his suggestions that the later rounds are just as fertile for pash rushers, or that good small-school talent gets overlooked.

Of DEs picked in the first two rounds, 4 of 8 lined up for more than two-thirds of plays last season, 1 of 8 for no plays at all.

Of DEs picked in rounds 3-5, 1 of 10 lined up for more than two-thirds of plays last season, 5 of 10 for no plays at all.

Check that out -- a full half of the DE's selected in rounds 3-5 in 2003 never saw the field last year. Not so fertile.

Meanwhile his "overlooked" small-school guy Umenyiora was taken in round 2, ahead of a raft of guys from from bigger programs. What's more, using sacks as your measure automatically downgrades the bigger guys like Ty Warren and Jarrett Johnson, who don't serve as featured pass rushers in the NFL -- and who never would have even been listed at DE at a smaller college. (Notice that Warren, a successful Big 12 product selected in round 1, is never even mentioned in the article.)

But after saying all this, I really do like the article. It offered something worth thinking about.

Very pertinent comments !!

kurtinelson · 06-28-2006, 03:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patchick

I like this article because it actually provides the table of data he worked off of, rather than just cherry-picking numbers. But honestly, I'm not convinced that the data support his suggestions that the later rounds are just as fertile for pash rushers, or that good small-school talent gets overlooked.

Of DEs picked in the first two rounds, 4 of 8 lined up for more than two-thirds of plays last season, 1 of 8 for no plays at all.

Of DEs picked in rounds 3-5, 1 of 10 lined up for more than two-thirds of plays last season, 5 of 10 for no plays at all.

Check that out -- a full half of the DE's selected in rounds 3-5 in 2003 never saw the field last year. Not so fertile.

Meanwhile his "overlooked" small-school guy Umenyiora was taken in round 2, ahead of a raft of guys from from bigger programs. What's more, using sacks as your measure automatically downgrades the bigger guys like Ty Warren and Jarrett Johnson, who don't serve as featured pass rushers in the NFL -- and who never would have even been listed at DE at a smaller college. (Notice that Warren, a successful Big 12 product selected in round 1, is never even mentioned in the article.)

But after saying all this, I really do like the article. It offered something worth thinking about.

Good followup analysis.

RayClay · 06-28-2006, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patchick

I like this article because it actually provides the table of data he worked off of, rather than just cherry-picking numbers. But honestly, I'm not convinced that the data support his suggestions that the later rounds are just as fertile for pash rushers, or that good small-school talent gets overlooked.

Of DEs picked in the first two rounds, 4 of 8 lined up for more than two-thirds of plays last season, 1 of 8 for no plays at all.

Of DEs picked in rounds 3-5, 1 of 10 lined up for more than two-thirds of plays last season, 5 of 10 for no plays at all.

Check that out -- a full half of the DE's selected in rounds 3-5 in 2003 never saw the field last year. Not so fertile.

Meanwhile his "overlooked" small-school guy Umenyiora was taken in round 2, ahead of a raft of guys from from bigger programs. What's more, using sacks as your measure automatically downgrades the bigger guys like Ty Warren and Jarrett Johnson, who don't serve as featured pass rushers in the NFL -- and who never would have even been listed at DE at a smaller college. (Notice that Warren, a successful Big 12 product selected in round 1, is never even mentioned in the article.)

But after saying all this, I really do like the article. It offered something worth thinking about.

Kirwan's the best football writer period,(IMO).

I don't think he's saying don't pick DE's in the 1st, just observing that that's the conventional wisdom.

Just trying to illustrate the Colts got great value at a position that's supposed to be a high pick.

By the way, the Colts draft very very well. Have to give credit where it's due.