Expectations of Hernandez - New England Patriots Forums

patriot lifer · 07-14-2010, 10:04 AM

While I love the prospect, how big of a year can we realistically expect out of the player? For starters, the Pats usually don't use TE's in the passing game that much. In 2006 when the team had few WR's, we all thought that Ben Watson would be the recipient of many a passes (49 actual). When we picked up David Thomas, the favorite target of Vince Young's at Texas, we all thought his soft hands would materialize into oodles of receptions (and yes injuries hampered his tenure). There seems to always be a reason why so-and-so player is different, but the pattern remains the same. This time it happens to be because he's from a pro-style offense and was a 2nd-round talent.

So what can we really expect out of a rookie TE? Considering his lack of bulk, other teams will know he's out there to pass-catch, not block (which is like showing your cards in poker). He better be prolific at pass-catching to consistently make it out onto the field.

Also consider that last year we had two decent pass-catching TE's in Watson and Baker and they played in a little over 60% of the offensive snaps each. The veterans combined for a total of 43 regular season receptions.

So that being said, what type of production are you guys expecting? Not to be a debby-downer...

Sicilian · 07-14-2010, 10:17 AM

I actually don't expect a ton of production in total, but I expect his contributions to come at significant times. He may not be a bulked up blocker, but his presence still causes some uncertainty. If he lines up in a blocking position, it's not like the defense can just say, "We'll bull rush him because he won't be able to block us," because he could just as easily be slipping out into the seams underneath on that play.

I expect around 30 catches from him. Nothing spectacular, but not because he's not getting it or holding his own. More because he'll be splitting reps and responsibilities with Crumpler and Gronk, but also with some WR's who will be running similar routes.

I think if we get 60 combined receptions from the TE spot, we'll be doing ok, and I expect Hernandez to have the most of those 60.

RayClay · 07-14-2010, 10:22 AM

Actually, he looks much sharper and more aggressive than some I've seen and I'm guessing if he gets open he'll get the ball some.

Watson is a great physical specimen, but let's face it, he did the absolute least with his natural athletic ability. He did a good job of getting open, but rarely got any YAC, preferring to step out of bounds or go down as if the play was over when he made the catch.

What killed me about him, though was watching 180 CBs wrestle the ball away fro him in the end zone. Maybe it was only one prominent time, but it should be never for a guy with his muscles.

Hernandez looks like a serious dude on tape. Great cuts, grabs the ball and screws.

mcsully · 07-14-2010, 10:38 AM

29 receptions and 340 yds and 1 td

Dallas Clark's rookie year stats

Metaphors · 07-14-2010, 10:38 AM

Couple of thoughts:

- Watson was a different type of receiver. Watson took forever to get in gear but had superior speed to separate downfield. Unfortunately the ball needed to be out of Brady's hands before that could happen most of the time.

- Hernandez is a move guy that will be used all over the field...but look for him to be used to quickly attack mismatches on shorter routes.

- Hernandez should contribute most against teams (like the Jets) that look to blitz Brady to slow him down. The Jets were the worst screen defense in the NFL and getting Hernandez the ball quickly in space against a linebacker or safety should be effective against them.

***Calciumee*** · 07-14-2010, 10:52 AM

I expect to see him get 30-40 receptions and maybe 2-3 TDs.

But I don't see him getting most of these as a TE, but moved out wide or as previously said on quick screen passes against blitzing teams.