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He can go wherever he wants, he's got a lifetime pass with me after that kick he made in the snow against the Raiders. I know it was only a kick but when you consider everything involved and everything it meant, I still say it's one of the best plays in NFL history. Vanderjagt couldn't hit that in a dome for Christ sakes.
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He can go wherever he wants, he's got a lifetime pass with me after that kick he made in the snow against the Raiders. I know it was only a kick but when you consider everything involved and everything it meant, I still say it's one of the best plays in NFL history. Vanderjagt couldn't hit that in a dome for Christ sakes.
Which is why he's crazy to leave. If he stays and his skills deteriorate, no one will forget that kick. If he chases the bucks and falls off, he'll be missin' sissin' -- and what fun is that?
And here is a write-up that is NOT so complimentary:
....
How much will the Patriots lose if they let Vinatieri go? Vinatieri is one of the better kickers in the league, but he's subject to the same year-to-year inconsistency as other kickers. In fact, Vinatieri has only hit 80 percent of his field goals in two of the past five years. He was worth just 1.7 points more than an average field goal kicker this season, which ranked him below such luminaries as Mike Nugent and Phil Dawson. Our estimates say field position from Vinatieri's kickoffs were worth an additional 5.3 points to the Patriots this year, which ranked seventh in the NFL. But this was the best season of Vinatieri's career for kickoffs, and he's not likely to improve in this area.
Of course, Adam Vinatieri isn't considered the most valuable kicker in the league because of kickoffs or run-of-the-mill field goals. He is considered the most valuable kicker in the league because of his legendary clutch field goals in the 2001 and '03 postseasons. We can debate whether "clutch field goal kicking ability" exists, but for now, let's assume it does, and Vinatieri is the best clutch field goal kicker in NFL history. How often does this actually matter to the Patriots?
A good definition for a clutch field goal would be a kick to tie the game or give a team the lead near the end of the game — or in overtime. During the 2005 regular season, there were 73 such field goal attempts, either in the final 10 minutes of the fourth quarter or in overtime. Did Vinatieri face an abnormal number of clutch field goal opportunities? Actually, no, he had just two such opportunities, both in the final 20 seconds of a tied game: a 43-yard field goal to beat Pittsburgh in Week 3 and a 29-yard field goal to beat Atlanta in Week 5.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Vinatieri's clutch kicking ability makes it impossible for him to miss these kicks. An average kicker will hit a 29-yarder 90 percent of the time and a 43-yarder 70 percent of the time. But a missed kick doesn't lead to a loss in these cases; it leads to overtime, where the Patriots still have a 50-50 shot at a win. So with an average kicker, the Patriots beat Atlanta 95 percent of the time and beat Pittsburgh 85 percent of the time. They still win both games 81 percent of the time. Is one-fifth of a win worth paying Vinatieri $3 million instead of paying a league-average kicker $1 million and spending the rest of the money on a veteran wide receiver or a veteran backup for defensive tackle Vince Wilfork?
What about the years prior to 2005? Believe it or not, Vinatieri didn't face a single clutch field goal opportunity in 2004. In 2003, he faced only two during the regular season, both against Houston and both in overtime. Yes, that means he missed one of them; so actually Vinatieri isn't perfect in clutch field goal situations. In the Super Bowl, of course, Vinatieri got one more clutch opportunity and hit a field goal at the end of the game to win the Patriots their second championship.
.... By the way, based on the definition above, [Ryan] Longwell has faced nine "clutch" field goal opportunities over the past three seasons, and every single one of those nine kicks sailed through the uprights. Todd Peterson of Atlanta might also be a reasonable replacement.
And here is a write-up that is NOT so complimentary:
....
How much will the Patriots lose if they let Vinatieri go? Vinatieri is one of the better kickers in the league, but he's subject to the same year-to-year inconsistency as other kickers. In fact, Vinatieri has only hit 80 percent of his field goals in two of the past five years. He was worth just 1.7 points more than an average field goal kicker this season, which ranked him below such luminaries as Mike Nugent and Phil Dawson. Our estimates say field position from Vinatieri's kickoffs were worth an additional 5.3 points to the Patriots this year, which ranked seventh in the NFL. But this was the best season of Vinatieri's career for kickoffs, and he's not likely to improve in this area.
Of course, Adam Vinatieri isn't considered the most valuable kicker in the league because of kickoffs or run-of-the-mill field goals. He is considered the most valuable kicker in the league because of his legendary clutch field goals in the 2001 and '03 postseasons. We can debate whether "clutch field goal kicking ability" exists, but for now, let's assume it does, and Vinatieri is the best clutch field goal kicker in NFL history. How often does this actually matter to the Patriots?
A good definition for a clutch field goal would be a kick to tie the game or give a team the lead near the end of the game — or in overtime. During the 2005 regular season, there were 73 such field goal attempts, either in the final 10 minutes of the fourth quarter or in overtime. Did Vinatieri face an abnormal number of clutch field goal opportunities? Actually, no, he had just two such opportunities, both in the final 20 seconds of a tied game: a 43-yard field goal to beat Pittsburgh in Week 3 and a 29-yard field goal to beat Atlanta in Week 5.
Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Vinatieri's clutch kicking ability makes it impossible for him to miss these kicks. An average kicker will hit a 29-yarder 90 percent of the time and a 43-yarder 70 percent of the time. But a missed kick doesn't lead to a loss in these cases; it leads to overtime, where the Patriots still have a 50-50 shot at a win. So with an average kicker, the Patriots beat Atlanta 95 percent of the time and beat Pittsburgh 85 percent of the time. They still win both games 81 percent of the time. Is one-fifth of a win worth paying Vinatieri $3 million instead of paying a league-average kicker $1 million and spending the rest of the money on a veteran wide receiver or a veteran backup for defensive tackle Vince Wilfork?
What about the years prior to 2005? Believe it or not, Vinatieri didn't face a single clutch field goal opportunity in 2004. In 2003, he faced only two during the regular season, both against Houston and both in overtime. Yes, that means he missed one of them; so actually Vinatieri isn't perfect in clutch field goal situations. In the Super Bowl, of course, Vinatieri got one more clutch opportunity and hit a field goal at the end of the game to win the Patriots their second championship.
.... By the way, based on the definition above, [Ryan] Longwell has faced nine "clutch" field goal opportunities over the past three seasons, and every single one of those nine kicks sailed through the uprights. Todd Peterson of Atlanta might also be a reasonable replacement.
Yep, already setting the groundwork so we can make excuses if Vinatieri leaves. "He's just a kicker. He's not worth the money." How much is peace of mind worth? Knowing you have the best in the business walking out on the field when the game is on the line. Now we are comparing Vinatieri to Ryan freaking Longwell? You should be ashamed of yourself for even suggesting such madness.
Nice Article on Adam
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