mgteich

You seem like a bright person. Why do you spout such nonesense?

With all due respect, the best football minds on the planet (who spend 10+ hours of a day on it all year) are only marginally successful in predicting whether a football player will succeed in the NFL. Other than the early first, the draft is a crapshoot will more failures than successes in judgement.

It is the height of arrogance to believe that you (certainly an educated football fan) can do what hordes of scouts and personnel folks cannot.

just my take.

Michigan Dave

Well....it depends. What do you define as success? I'm not saying I can predict a mock draft. No way. I am saying that I have experience with college football, and as someone who has a lot of friends and contacts in the industry, I know the train of thought used by scouts and coaches in determining whom they will select. I re-read my post, and I agree that it came off wrong. In no way can I sit and predict "this guy will be a star, this guy will bust, etc." That's not what I meant to say. What I was trying to do was refute the post that seemed to say that a good college player does not make a good pro player, because the implication there seemed to be that people were thinking college star=NFL star. I disagree with this, but I also believe that players right out of college can fit in and contribute in the league right off the bat. Again, not that I can predict 100% who can and cannot play in the league. I gave a couple of examples to show the train of thought. First, with Brady. I had bias there, but as someone who worked with him in practice everyday, and saw the intangibles that he brought to the table, I knew he would be successful in the pros. Now, I had an advantage, because coaches and scouts have hundreds of players to analyze, and cannot spend the time with each one that I spent on the Michigan guys. But, in the case of guys we played against, I would look for certain things to see how they may adapt at the next level. Alexander and Dayne being a good example, because Dayne won the Heisman Alexander's senior year, but after playing both of them, I knew Alexander was a better fit for the league. Each position has certain traits that are necessary for success most of the time. There are players that are hit/miss that defy the odds (Dat Nguyen), but for the most part, that is how scouts and coaches draft. Is that a little clearer?

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texpat

Not sure if you were disagreeing with me or not, but here goes. I think you may have more insight than 99% of the posters if you indeed played football on the college level. Without being disrespectful to you or Brady, I think that Carr, Harrington, Rivers, etc. all had teammates that thought they had the necessary tools to be successful in the NFL. "If" Brady had been selected by 20-25 others teams in the 5th round (say Detriot), it is very likely that we wouldn't be on this board discussing this at all and he might be known by only a very few people. There are so many variables including luck, that determine stars in the league. If Parcells had remained, would he have gone back to Bledsoe?? You never know. Now, you have selected a few names that you determined would or would not be successful in the NFL. You say Dayne would not be a star, but I would say he has been successful, all a matter of persepctive. I am impressed with anyone who can stay on a roster in the NFL for longer than 5/6 years. Now, go down a list of 300-400 players who will be drafted or signed as free agents this year and choose who makes it and who doesn't and I doubt you would have as much success as NFL scouts. And that goes to my premise that most fans are not able to determine how a college player will function as a pro player.

Now I would love to know your opinion of Drew Henson (as I live in Dallas).

TIA

Michigan Dave

No problem. I was mainly disagreeing with the point made that no college player could step in and make a difference, but then I digressed. My experience is this: I worked as a QB assistant and a scout team QB with UMich during the end of Tommy's career and during Drew's. These guys I became good friends with, and hold a great bias towards their careers. However, I currently work part-time in the NFL (with the visiting team's lockerroom/sideline at Ford Field), and have been around a TON of great players. There is no player that has the "it" that Tommy has. You just believe in the guy. I never thought we would lose the Orange Bowl despite twice falling behind by 14, because Tommy wouldn't let us lose. I think wherever he ended up, he would've been a good player in the league, but I think he ended up in a perfect situation, and has been able to maximize his development. The point of my post was definitely not to arrogantly assume I can somehow pick who will/won't succeed, rather to say that there is a science used by pro scouts to pick players, and that some folks can identify players using that method. No one can accurately predict success, but you can try and understand where they are coming from. In no way am I qualified to be a scout. A buddy of mine from college ended up as a scout for the Jets, and he just scouted the BigTen. I felt that I had a solid grasp on the BigTen, yet after a year with the Jets, he was rattling off things that were just amazing.

As to your question about Henson, well, like I said, hard to not be biased, but here goes. Drew is an amazing talent. I played against him in HS, and we came into UM together (class of 02!). The years away from football were a huge setback, as he had been advised before leaving (spring of 2001) that he'd be the #1 pick of the Texans had he stayed and been productive. His arm is live, and he has good decision making skills, but he needs to mature a little and not play emotional. I have no doubts that he can be a successful QB in the league, but he needs patience, and hard work. He tends to throw the ball too hard (my hands still hurt from catching 10 yard outs in the fieldhouse in the springtime!) and can be rattled easily. I think the designation to NFLE will offer him a chance to catch up to the speed of the game a little more. Playing behind Bledsoe another year or two won't be terribly bad for his development (assuming he can at least beat out Tony Romo this year.)

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patsox23

Michigan Dave - I've been trying to get my hands on a burned DVD of the Orange Bowl game where Brady led the Wolverines back to victory. any chance you have it and I could send you a check to get myself a copy? If not, any suggestions?

My e-mail is patsox23@aol.com

pats1

Ugh, c'mon. College football SHOULD be no more than an extra-curricular activity. But for athletes on scholarships, it's become their life. Do you actually think these athletes do a damn thing in their classes?

They're too busy attending trophy ceremonies, holding press conferences, and doing TV interviews. Absolutely disgusting. I turn off the TV right when they show, for example, Sinorice Moss on ESPNews. When they get to the NFL, fine, track them moreso then. But it's WAY too much exposure.

It's grown into something it shouldn't be. That has also contributed to the emergence of the T.O.'s, Sean Taylor's, etc., etc.

Michigan Dave

I have a VHS copy that I could make for you, but you know, I do have a friend in Oregon who had a digital recorder hooked up to his computer. I'll see if I can't get him to burn one. I'd like a copy as well. I have some nice camera closeups in that game. I'll send an email and keep you posted. If a VHS copy works, let me know.

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Michigan Dave

Actually, they do lead fairly normal lives. Sure, during the fall we would typically take about 12 credits, and all the classes were done by 1 or 2 at the latest, but athletes are normal students. We didn't miss class much, since our buses left for the airport for road games at 2 (save for the rare west coast trip), and the entire bowl trip was over break. My class was a highly recruited class, and we had very "prominent" players like Drew Henson, Dave Terrell, Marquise Walker, Larry Foote, Vic Hobson, etc. Those guys along with the other "stars" like Tommy, Anthony Thomas, Ian Gold, and Dhani Jones were just regular guys like I was. We would go to class together, go to football, do homework, play video games, go to the bar. Only seniors (who were usually done with school, because most guys stayed over the summer for conditioning/7 on 7 and took summer classes, putting them on early track to graduate) or juniors who had declared really were out in the media. There are definitely some guys who abuse the system, but college football is still pretty pure. I've lived it, and I know what it is.

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