Patspsycho

First seed goes to Colts (assuming they don't have a meltdown). Next three are a toss up at this point, between the Chargers, Bengals, and Patriots.

My thoughts are:

Chargers and Bengals will play each other in the next to last game. I am rooting for Bengals to win because they play at Minnesota and that is going to be a difficult game for them to win.

However this makes it all the more important that we win at Miami because if Chargers do win the game vs. Bengals and somehow tie with us in overall and conference record, we win by virtue of common opponents (tiebreaker) if we win in Miami.

So to me, this is the most important road win of this season, bar none.

BelichickFan

I expect SD will win that one. They have two decent shots to lose with Dallas and @ Tennessee, they should win them both but they're very losable games. Either way we'd be ahead of them, if we win out, as a loss to Tennessee would give them one more conference loss than us and a loss to Dallas would put us in the Common Opponents scenario you referred to.

gmtaxi27

I think we will end up with 4 seed.

While I would love the Pats to run the table, I don't think it will happen. They will probably drop game either at Miami, Houston, or even Buffalo who seems to be playing better.

Jimke

I agree with you. The Patriots will lose at least one road game.

Patspsycho

What is your argument for this? Or is that just an assumption?

gmtaxi27

Isn't the fact we haven't won a road game yet a good enough argument.

I would also add, that Miami is dangerous and usually give the Pats fits in Miami. The Bills seem to be playing better, and don't forget they pretty much outplayed us in the home opener, and Houston is a good team that is just badly coached. They can play with anybody.

The Intimidator

Looking at the schedules, I can see this happening. Here are the two team's remaining schedules.

Chargers:
Week 13 Sun. Dec. 6 @ Browns*
Week 14 Sun. Dec. 13@ Cowboys*
Week 15 Sun. Dec. 20 Bengals
Week 16 Fri. Dec. 25 @ Titans
Week 17 Sun. Jan. 3 Redskins*

Besides the Browns, this is going to be a very tough schedule. The Titans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and the Redskins have been playing better as of late. Though, I expect the Redskins to have the RVS running in the back by that time. Cowboys and Bengal games will be very tough for them. I can see at least one loss on here.


Bengals:
Sun., Dec. 6 DETROIT 1 p.m.*
Sun., Dec. 13 at Minnesota 1 p.m.*
Sun., Dec. 20 at San Diego 4:05 p.m.*
Sun., Dec. 27 KANSAS CITY 1 p.m.*
Sun., Jan. 3 at N.Y. Jets 1 p.m.*

I have a strong feeling they will lose at Minnesota and have a very tough game on the road at San Diego, which will help us either way for the Bye.

With these schedules, and with the Patriots schedule, I could see us getting the bye, but I dont think it is a given that we win out. We have a tough game the last game vs the Texas and a tough game down in Miami where we never seem to play with. However, looking at the schedules if we win out, it is pretty safe to say that we will get the #2 seed.

The Chargers are 6-3 in the AFC
2-2 vs common opponents with a game vs the Titans.
The Bengals are 7-3 in the AFC
1-2 vs common opponents with the Patriots still having to play the Texans.

The Patriots are 7-3 in the AFC

Looking at this, we have the tie breaker vs the Bengals currently if it is a tie at the end of the year. We are tied currently with the Chargers in tie breakers, with a huge game vs the Titans to decide common opponents.

How I look at it, we win out, we get the #2 seed looking at this. I don't see either of these teams winning out.

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We will Back next year.

Rob0729

I'm not sold on that. The road woes of the Pats have been overstated. They lost on the road to two teams that are a combined 22-0. Denver was 5-0 when the Pats faced them. Brady still was rusty against the Jets and the Jets shot their load in that game treating it like the Super Bowl. People want to dismiss the Tampa road game like it never happened because it was in London.

I think all three remaining road games are easily easier opponents than Indy or New Orleans and even the Broncos.

I think the Pats have a decent shot at the #2 seed. Both San Deigo and Cincy have injury concerns and face a tougher schedule.

Patspsycho

I do agree that the Bills are playing much better. They are very dangerous right now because Jauron's conservativeness has been eliminated and they are just opening up the playbook and throwing caution to the wind.

Miami is dangerous but I do not see why we should not win if we shut down Ricky (now that Brown is out) and contain White.

In regard to our "road woes", our first loss can be solely pinned on Brady having his worst game of the year which was justified because he faced heavy blitz on a gimpy knee. Our 2nd loss was to the then-surging 5-0 Broncos, then to the 9-0 Colts, and then to the 10-0 Saints.

mayoclinic

I posted this on another thread, but many seem to have missed it:

NFL playoff projections, scenarios for Week 13 - Dom Bonvissuto - SI.com

FWIW, it predicts the Pats will win out going 12-4, and get the #2 seed over San Diego based on a tie-breaker.

Assuming we win out and at least one of Cincy and SD finish 12-4, the first tie-breaker is head-to-head. We don't meet either SD or Cincy head to head in the regular season. The next tie-breaker is record within the conference. If we win out we will have 3 conference losses. The loser of Cincy/SD will have 4. If the winner loses another conference game, we have the edge. If SD beats Cincinnati, they would have to lose to either Cleveland (unlikely) or Tennessee (possible) to get a 4th conference loss. If Cincy beats SD they would have to lose to either Detroit or Kansas City (unlikely) or the Jets (possible). Otherwise it goes to more arcane tie-breaking procedures.

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