AzPatsFan

In the face of this adversity I have had to step back and consider.

I have and have come to some positive conclusions:

1) The defense is sound, and now much younger than it was at the start of the season. In the playoffs the defense shut down both Jax and Denver destroying the argument that the improvement was merely a mirage from playing "nobodies".

2) The secondary is well on its way to being wholly rebuilt with young talent. In fact the five remaining CBs and five Safeties are all under thirty. True we have a few 30 somethings around too, but they weren't starting on this playoff run.

3) The rebuilt defensive line is now both young and as good as any in the league. Its of championship quality, already. And we might have found a couple of surprises in Mike Wright and Santonio Thomas for added depth.

4) The linebacking has been partially rebuilt. Colvin and Vrabel are championship caliber starters in their primes. Bruschii and McGinnest are older but overall we are subtantially younger than last season. We have weathered the retirements of Phife, 37, and TJ, 33, and adapted. FWIW, it appears that Beisel might actually be starting to adapt to ILB in the Belichick defense, off of the Jax game. Chatham has made the transition to being a better than average reserve at ILB now, and OLB heretofor. He played most of the MIami game at ILB and had double digit tackle totals, and Miami's first stringers did not dominate.

4) The Offense is almost completely rebuilt. In fact the only front line player over thirty is Cory Dillon at 31. Every other position on Offense is fully stocked with players who are young and talented. To be sure there are other older players but it is obvious that Fauria and Troy Brown are being phased down. At the beginning of the year we still were not sure about Watson and to a degree Graham either. We have keepers in both guys for sure.

5) The newcomers on the O-line are future keepers and a Probowl is probable for Mankins down the line. The O-line now has many more starter quality players than there are positions on first, second, inactive, and PS to hold them all.

6) We even found a good future backup QB in Cassel, and maybe more than that. Recording a passer ranking of 119 in your first start is extraordinary. And then factor in playing with second stringers against an opponents first stringers make it awesome.

7) The Miami effort underlined that our statements about great depth appear to be confirmed with hard evidence and not just expectations.

8) Every one is concerned about keeping our FAs but having only Givens and Neal to sign this offseason appears do-able compared with other years.

9) The salary cap position is even better than it appears. Athough it went up from $85 to $92 million, in 2006, for the Pats it goes up even more. We had lots of NLTBE repayments from 2004 that hit the last year, so our practical cap was around 79 million, as we repaid those NLTBE fees. Our real cap should go up some 12 to 13 million over 2005.

10) We have a double draft coming up with extra picks in rounds 3,4,5,6,and 7, as well as a mid first and mid second. We appear to have only five openings on the team at most and have almost that many first day picks alone.

11) While Saban will be offering more competition with the Phish, neither the Jets nor Bills look like they are making progress. Mangini is stuck working for a doofus who needs to be fired. He's handicapped going in like Pete Carroll was with Mr. Grier. As for ther Bills, Levy is no fool but is 80; and its unlikely they can bring in a great coach in those circumstances who would likely demand total control.

12) The overall competiton in the AFC is changing. Denver has 8 starters still starting from theri 99 SuperBowl. They'll fade.

13) This was the Colts year to do it; now the cap hell descends and the rats start abandoning ship there too.

14) San Diego is rising and the Steelers have retooled. It looks like a three way fight with the Patriots to me, with Jax and Cincy flawed but game too.

15) Superbowl XLI beckons and it won't be in Detroit!

Miguel

The problem with the Patriots secondary is that there is not a playmaker in it.

The problem for the Patriots is that their youngest starting LB, Colvin, is already 28 years old. Beisel and Chatham have yet to show me that they are capable starting LBs.

And yet the Patriots running game was not as good as it was in 2004 and Brady faced the most pressure in his career. I think that Patriots fan are overrating the Patriots' offensive line. IMO, Brady makes them look better than they actually are.

The 2004 Patriots adjusted cap figure was $82,597,805, not $79 million. Given that the Patriots are one of a small number of teams that greatly used NLTBE incentives, it is very likely that the adjusted cap for most of the other teams will increase more than will the Patriots' adjusted cap.


Only five openings??
That number is way off, IMO.
The Patriots need a #2 WR, a #3 WR, a #3 QB, a #3 TE, a #3RB, better depth at ILB, better depth in the secondary, a playmaker in the secondary, a kicker. Given this team's injury history, this team needs to bring in more quality players to training camp than most teams.

__________________
My youngest sister's best friend is on the board of directors of a food pantry in Malden, Massachusetts that distributed 285,000 meals and meal equivalents in 2005. I am asking that if you have found my salary cap pages useful that if you are able to do so, please make a donation to it. Please contact me for more information.

MDPATSFAN

Don't mean to be disagreeable but I see the need for a #1 Running Back not a mere #3. Perhaps Dillion can recover from his leg injury and return to form. Brady's life expectancy will be cut short if he has another year like 2005.

Miguel

While I agree with you that the Patriots need to upgrade at the #1 RB position, I think that Dillon is a lock to be on the Patriots' 2006 roster, and therefore his roster spot is not open.

__________________
My youngest sister's best friend is on the board of directors of a food pantry in Malden, Massachusetts that distributed 285,000 meals and meal equivalents in 2005. I am asking that if you have found my salary cap pages useful that if you are able to do so, please make a donation to it. Please contact me for more information.

Miguel

The flip side to this is that the 2006 cap numbers for a good number of Patriots (most promimently - Brady, Colvin, Faulk, Light, Bruschi, Dillon, Harrison, Green) will be higher than their 2005 cap numbers. I can think of only 1 players (Vrabel) whose 2006 cap number will definitely be lower than his 2005 cap number.

__________________
My youngest sister's best friend is on the board of directors of a food pantry in Malden, Massachusetts that distributed 285,000 meals and meal equivalents in 2005. I am asking that if you have found my salary cap pages useful that if you are able to do so, please make a donation to it. Please contact me for more information.

BelichickFan

This has a lot to do with Light and Koppen being out by the time Mankins got more experience. Even if Kaczur levels off, those three should start to improve the line once they're together for longer. And hopefully Kaczur will be a good RT.

CT_Pats_Fan

If SP/BB stay the course with Dillon at #1, we'll know it was an injury that was worse than they let on. If SP/BB decide to go in a different direction, we'll know it was Dillon hitting the RB age wall. Either way, an objective look at RB this year would grade that position a "D", and that simply won't do.

Brady'sButtBoy

While Miguel's post seems a little on the 'sky is falling' side, I do agree that we have more needs than is made obvious to we the fans. You can only use so much smoke and mirrors before the bottom line talent base reveals itself and that is what happened to the Pats mid-season. The choice to allow Hobbs room to grow and the underrated move to aquire Hawkins did nearly as much for the D as Seymour's return. Not many people were heard saying Green was fine as a fill-in for King Richard were they? Certainly not as many who exaggerated Green's performance last year - me included. Point being that an infusion of talent - Hobbs and Hawkins (+Seymour, and Brushci rounding into form) - was the turning point as much or more so than any changes in scheme. With that in mind...

Playmakers needed -
DB
OL
WR (assuming Givens leaves)
RB
LB (soon anyway)

DB- it could be a stud CB or more likely, a Safety, but this group would really benefit from having a very high level player at one of those positions. Rodney filled that role with aplomb but it seems too much to hope he returns as the player he once was. Yes, Polamalu gets burned deep once in a while but his presence is very distracting to opposing QB's, like Rodney's used to be. Having a speedy wildman who can hit and play with confidence would energize a defensive backfield which at times was holding on by it's fingernails while the front seven attacked. Thus, my no. 1 acquisition would be in this realm.

OL - Dante can work wonders for certain but just watch a guy like Walter Jones work and you can quickly see what an addition true power stud tackle would be to a line which struggled to run block consistently. Kaczur was solid but not spectacular, the same for Mankins. Look around the league and you can see what stabilizing presence guys like Jones have on an entire offense. It's been too long since a gifted behemoth like Bruce Armstrong patrolled the LOS for the Pats. Such a player would be my second most important pickup but I'd be fine he came first.

WR- is only this high a priority if they don't re-up Givens. Because he's young and tough and has a rapport with TB he's the obvious choice. Moulds would be very interesting as a replacement if Givens heads out. It could even be argued that Moulds represents more of a 'playmaker' than Givens because of his speed and size but due to age, 32, we'd need a youngster behind him. Don't be surprised if the Pats first draft pick is a WR if Givens splits and Moulds signs elsewhere. TB needs his weapons!

RB- personally, I think Dillon is finished. But he was essentially guaranteed $5mil for next year so he will on the team. The light goes out quickly for most RBs so counting on Dillion could be very risky. Regardless, we need a younger all around RB (Faulk is too one dimensional and still fumbles too much for me, while Pass is merely adequate to fill in here and there with Evans). When you recall what a bolt of energy Dillon was when he first got here it becomes very clear why we need another super stud - not just a decent fill in - in the pipeline.

LB - How much longer can Willie last? We desperately need another game changer like him to fill his shoes. Even if he needs to sit most of the first year dropping a high draft pick on playmaker like Merriman makes a lot of sense. Diddo for the middle LB but I'd bet we'll see the Bruschi/Vrabel tandem inside for at least two more seasons.

That's 4/5 or even 6, playmakers needed which is quite a bit. which of these slots get filled with top flight talent will be very interesting to watch.

__________________
King of my matchbox sized world

MoLewisrocks

Unfortunately that could be characterized as wishful thinking. As was the concensus thinking on this line last year, not to mention the secondary (beyond Rodney). Sometime players don't develop as quickly as expected, or had a lower ceiling than anticipated, and sometimes they inexplicably regress.

I agree with Miguel that Pats fans are over rating this line (not to mention underestimating the needs in general). Dillon may have been battling injuries but as a unit - even before the injuries - these guys couldn't open a door if you handed them the key. And Brady's low sack numbers have always been more a credit to his pocket presence and awareness, ability to process quickly, his field vision and guts. He avoids sacks well, but he gets hit, harrassed, pressured at an alarming rate and not only when he's blitzed - which is very problematic because in those situations his receivers are now being well covered at the same time. When he has time it's usually at the expense of having adjusted protection so his TE's are not available to run routes.

I would not be surprised, and would frankly be pleased, if we see BB continuing his recent efforts to upgrade the Oline. I think Brady deserves one that can stand alone except under very select circumstances. And I think as a team we need one that consistently opens holes sufficiently that you don't need a healthy stud all pro RB to have any semblance of a power running game - cause going forward those guys can costly to maintain. I agree with those who say we need a true replacement for Dillon in the pipeline at the very least, because whether he's done or not (and I don't think he is and he's here irregardless because of finances) Pass and Faulk are complimentary players at best and can be very costly in their own right when relied on as anything more than an occasional change of pace back.

Last off season was a little different around here with guys being babied and rested through TC. It didn't work. Perhaps if you can't bring it through a full off season and pre season you aren't a good bet to bring it in with any consistency in the regular season or the post season. Some guys are probably worth babying a bit - like Willie and even Tommy. But we seemed to be blindsided somewhat by the erratic level of execution this team displayed early in the season.

It may have had its roots in a TC and pre season where oddball groupings were the norm rather than the exception, because starters weren't performing consistently well on this team out of the gate and they were plagued with nagging injuries (or trips to the dog house). In many cases their backups seemed to have regressed or been exposed, and that should result in some upgrades going forward. The D got better once Tedy and Richard together returned and got their feet under them as well as when Hobbs replaced Starks and Hawkins replaced a revolving door at SS. Wilson's play gradually improved thereafter but he never regained his 2004 form. The Aliens appear to have returned Asante for the postseason, but where they hid him during the season remains a mystery. If we've seen the last of Starks and Poole as I anticipate, and Rodney makes it back but via PUP we must seriously bolster the talent in the defensive backfield.

The O remained inconsistent all season.

I'm not intending to sound like a wet blanket because I think the core players here remain solid, particularly on defense. But the only true core player I see on the other side of the ball is Tommy. Neither Branch or Givens (who is likely gone because he wants #1 money) are in my mind truly #1 receivers, though with better protection we know Tom can make do with multiple outstanding 2's and/or 3's. Especially if he has excellent TE's (and a functional running game). Watson and Graham both show flashes of excellence potential, but Watson (chasing Bailey down and his catch and run against JAX aside) remains an inconsistent weapon and Graham is either proving fragile or something else is afoot (doghouse rumors). And as long as they are logging more time as blockers than receivers they can't be consistently considered as impact offensive weapons anyway.

Players were angry and motivated after 2002, but BB didn't bank on that alone to get this team back to the championship game. He made changes and upgrades (or tried to) because he understands that if you aren't getting better in this game you're likely getting worse. He's not a real status quo kind of guy. His post season assessments are cut throat, and after this season they should be even moreso.

As BB is fond of saying there are changes every season. We'll have the new DC change to undergo again this season. If it's inhouse there may be fewer adjustments to undergo, but if he outsources at all for experience (even to someone familiar with the system in general) there will be a lot of adjustments for coaching and players. We have 17 UFA's Dale and Holley were just discussing. Seymour's deal was redone but not extended. If he holds out again because he and BB remain on a different page contract wise, which I still believe was damaging on more than one level this year, it will not bode well for 2006. Especially since this season Jarvis Green appeared to be one of the backups who either regressed or was exposed.

In BB I trust, so I think we'll get it all done well enough. But there is definitely work to do and some changes to be made.

Ochmed Jones

I agree with Brady'sbuttboy's list of needs. Our order is a little different, but not much.

As Miguel said #1 priority Playmaker in the secondary. Ko Simpson was the best safety in the country last year and a true playmaker. (and that includes comparing him to Landry of LSU). His game of quicks, long speed, tackling and especially INSTINCTS, make him a perfect fit for the BB defense. I know BB does not like to draft underclassmen however this guy could be an exception.
At CB I like Hill of Clemson. However he can not step right in and play next year. He'll need a year in the system.

Priority #2 - RT. Is Kazcur the answer. I don't think so, He might be better served as the 3rd swing tackle in the Pats OL with Gorin as the 4th tackle. The draft seems like the best route for a solid RT. Whitworth of LSU or if they wait a little longer Justice of West Virginia.

Priority #3 - WR. Our inability to field a three WR set that caused the opposing team difficulties was embarrassing. Yes we had that one set were we lined up three guys on one side and threw to Branch. Teams figured that out in a hurry and we stopped doing it. A veteran is needed badly. Maybe two if Givens leaves. A draft pick is also needed for the #4 or #5 slot.

Priority #4 - ILB depth. There is vertually none and Beisel still looks dreadful. I like Parham of Virginia and Reid of KU could be moved inside.

Priority #5 - RB depth. I like Addai of LSU. I think that once the OL is fixed, Dillion comes back strong. Taking Addai is decent insurance and he can play ST while he waits.

Priority #6 - KR/PR. I have no idea what's going on with Bethel, but relying on Hobbs, Dwight and Brown didn't work. Colleges crank out a ton of these type guys, maybe now is the time for BB to scoop one up. I think someone will take Hester way too high, so BB is going to have to watch a bit of tape. However Rodgers of TCU and Reid of FSU are options.

Priority #7 - Veteran Backup NT. If anything happens to Wilfork, we would be hurting.