Metaphors

If we ignore the Buffalo game (a common weekly phrase in upstate NY) and just begin with a 1-0 record, the Pats are at the quarter pole. Good time to take stock and look ahead:

1st Quarter (2-2)
- 2 at home, 2 on the road
- All against top 10 teams
- 3 top 10 defenses
- 2 top 10 offenses
- All young quarterbacks

Held serve at home, close games on the road, all against good competition. I guess the record is understandable, but neither of the losses were good ones. I would be seriously nervous if this were the final stretch. Luckily it isn't.

2nd Quarter
- 2 at home, 1 neutral, 1 bye
- None against top 16 teams
- 1 top 10 defense
- 2 average offenses
- 1 vet QB, 1 youngster and whatever the Bucs throw out

The Pats spend the next month without stepping into an opposing stadium. In the only "away" game, the Pats get home weather (100% chance of chilly rain) and fan (watch Family Guy...Pats are huge in England) advantage. Miami is always tricky, but the Pats will be coming off a bye while the Fins will playing their 2nd straight tough division roadie. If the Pats aren't 6-2 at halftime, something is seriously wrong.

3rd Quarter
- 1 at home, 3 on the road
- 3 against top 10 teams
- 2 top 5 offenses
- 3 top 10 defenses
- 2 Pro Bowl QBs and 2 youngsters

The meat of the schedule. All of the opponents have interesting tie-breaker implications with the Jets...can't get swept by the Jets, the Jets have already lost to the Saints, the Jets will likely face a disinterested Colts team later in the year and a loss to the Fins probably results in a 4-2 division record tie. Have to beat the Jets at home and get at least one of the road games.

4th Quarter
- 2 at home, 2 on the road
- None against top 20 teams
- 1 top 15 offense
- 1 top 15 defense
- All vet QBs

None of these opponents will be thinking of playoffs and some of them will be answering questions about moving to LA or Canada. A perfect road to the playoffs...opponents just competent enough to keep you on your toes, but not good enough to beat you (besides the "any given Sunday" thing).

So the schedule sets up to have a 12-4 Pats team entering the playoffs on a 4+ game winning streak. Likely not a #1 seed (Colts should sleepwalk to 13-14 wins). All things considered, not a super fantastic outlook and anything can still happen but certainly enough optimism to stay off the ledge.

Box_O_Rocks

Okay, who forgot to send Metaphors the memo? These damned optimistic threads are just going to drag this forum down in controversy.

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ricogatenby99

Damn right the pats are big in England

In a weeks time I will be making the trip to London, Cannot wait peepz.

They way I see it, the jets are 3-2 aswell, so aslong as we go at least 9-2 from now on, and beat the Jets, the playoffs are certain.

tedy hagler

Good work. I see 12-4 as quite possible. If we go the dreaded 11-5 again, Colts, Saints and Miami at home are the loss games.

If we had gotten out of Denver 4-1 . . .

NovaScotiaPatsFan

we're dooooooooooooooooooooooooomed!!! Dooooooooooomed I tells ya!

Rob0729

Although I don't want to jinx it, but the Pats' schedule on its face isn't that hard the rest of the way. If the Pats can get through their November schedule with only one or two losses, they should be in very good shape to have 11 or 12 wins barring injuries or just a collapse.

jmt57

Before the season started I felt the Pats could go 12-4 - although I will say I was shading towards 11-5 after Seymour was traded. I didn't break it down into quarters of the season the way Metaphors did, but by divisions.

AFC East: one loss; probably against the Dolphins, or possibly the Jets
AFC South: one loss; probably against the Colts, or possibly the Titans
NFC South: one loss; could be against anyone except the Bucs
At large: one more loss whether it be against one of the two 2nd place teams, another one of the teams mentioned above, or one of those unexpected losses when a team just comes out flat.

I think the preseason talk of 14-2 was a bit unrealistic - but I also think the recent predictions by some of an 8-8 season is even more unrealistic. Right now I still think 12-4 is the most likely outcome even though that means the Pats will have to go 9-2 for that to happen; if not 12-4, then the next most likely outcome would be one additional loss, which would give the Pats an 11-5 record.

JSn

I think the most worrisome games on our schedule are the fish and that's been my position all along. Their defense has some weak spots, but we're very fortunate to be playing them well after Brady has had time to get it together. If he's not back by then, I don't know when he will be. Sorting out the #3 receiver is pretty important in that.

I think we will drop one to the Fins and will likely struggle against the Colts.

I think we're going to have a good game against the Saints and I think that game could be the one that matters most when the standings are mathed out in December/January.

12-4 is very realistic, but 11-5 probably means the Saints got us and we're praying for another team to save our butts again.

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jmt57

Granted the Pats missed the playoffs last year with an 11-5 record last year, but keep in mind that was the first time that happened in the NFL in what, twenty years or something like that? Obviously you want to avoid any chance of that happening and the nuances of a tie breaker, and 12-4 is preferable to 11-5 for multiple reasons, but I seriously doubt that an 11-5 team will not make the playoffs in back-to-back years.

To me the bigger concerns with finishing 11-5 rather than 12-4 is that it probably means wild card rather than division winner, and playing on the road rather than playing at home.

Metaphors

I started this thread because I was tired of hearing how dominant the Giants and Colts were, while the Pats and Packers (just to pick a similar team) are in trouble.

Giants:
- 6 pt. win against Skins at home
- 2 pt. win against over-rated Cowboys
- Blowouts against Bucs, Chiefs and Raiders

Colts:
- 2 pt. win against Jags at home
- 4 pt. win after being dominated by Fins
- Blowouts against Cards, Hawks (injured Hasselbeck) and Titans

They have played 1 legit opponent each and they easily could have lost those games. They each opened with lackluster wins and have been on cruise control for the last 3 weeks against poor competition. In the Giants case, against historically poor competition.

In the next month, the Giants face NO, Philly and SD. Let's listen to the opinions on the G-men and Pats after this stretch. The point is that the Giants or Pats won't be significantly different than how they are now. They will just look that way based on the competition they face...and the "draw a final conclusion after every game" crowd will see the world completely different from how they do now.

I wish the Colts had a similar story, but unfortunately they don't. Between their division (6 games), the NFC west (4 games) and the bottom of the AFC east (Buffalo), the Colts get 11 wins just for signing their name on the schedule.