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Old 04-26-2009, 03:50 PM   #1
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Default My thoughts on the draft

I have to admit, I was a bit put off yesterday by how the first 2 rounds went. Not what I expected. Part of me assumed that was good news - BB has never failed to surprise me, and I would be skeptical if he actually did what I thought he should do. But part of me was admittedly a bit bummed out.

Looking at the bigger picture today, BB's plan actually compares fairly well to what I wanted to the Pats to do, though with different players than I had targeted:

1. I wanted to improve the pass rush at OLB, specifically either with Barwin (long-term) and Jason Taylor (short term) or with a trade for Julius Peppers. We've passed on Barwin, but Peppers and Taylor are still options, and we have plenty of ammo to trade for Peppers without cannabalizing our draft if we want to, and can figure out a way to fit his contract in. [B]It seems clear that BB has more confidence in our young OLBs (Crable and Redd) than I gave him credit for, and is not panicking to make a move. I'm disappointed about Barwin and will follow his career with interest, but I have to trust BB's judgment in not making a move for him.

2. I wanted to improve the secondary. Once we signed Bodden and Springs I didn't think we would go CB day 1 in the draft, unless it was a CB/S type like Malcolm Jenkins or Sean Smith. I mainly thought we should target an attacking, physical safety with good coverage ability to complement Brandon Meriweather as a future starter. Louis Delmas was my guy, but I can't complain with the Patrick Chung pick (and who knows, BB might have taken Delmas if he hadn't gone one pick earlier). And with the Ellis Hobbs trade (which makes sense given that we weren't likely to sign him after 2009, seeing what the CB market was like) the Butler pick makes much more sense. If Leigh Bodden shows some of his Cleveland form and we can sign him long term we would have a long-term CB rotation of Butler, Bodden, Wheatley and Wilhite - potentially a better rotation even than 2003. And Meriweather-Chung-Sanders is a solid safety core. [B]It seems clear that upgrading the secondary was BB's biggest priority this offseason[B], much as adding speed at LB was his top priority last year.

3. I wanted to add depth at DL, both at DT and DE. My dream was Jarren Gilbert at DE in the 2nd and a 3rd-6th round DT such as Chris Baker, Sammie Lee Hill, Vaughn Martin, Dorell Scott or Terrance Knighton. BB clearly agreed with adding depth at DL but went DT first with Ron Brace. I was taken by surprise by this move, but again, IBBIT.

4. I wanted to add a possible starter at SILB to complement Mayo and Guyton. Unless we could trade up for Aaron Curry, my preference was taking one in the 3rd-4th round, with a preference for Jason Williams. Williams went early in the 3rd round, but Tyrone McKenzie is a similar type of player who should make a nice addition to the ILB rotation. No argument there.

5. I wanted to add a long-term player at WR in the 3rd-5th round, with my favorite target being Mike Wallace from Mississippi. Wallace went #90, one pick after BB took Brandon Tate. Tate wasn't on my board because of injury and MJ issues, but if BB wants to take a gamble on a high upside guy who wouldn't otherwise have been available, it's fine by me.

6. I wanted to add long-term depth at OL, both at OT and OG. My choices were William Beatty at OT and TJ Lang, Trevor Canfield, and Brandon Walker at OG. BB clearly agreed with adding depth at OL, but liked different guys. I'm a bit surprised by Sebastian Vollmer in the 2nd, but if BB likes Vollmer, Ohrnberger, and Bussey, then I can't argue it.

In addition, BB showed why he is so much smarter than everyone else, including of course me. He did all of that while saving cap room by trading out of the 1st round, and while acquiring 2 additional 2010 second round picks. That gives us ammo to trade for an impact player (possibly even one of Peppers, Suggs or Dansby, though I think that is very unlikely), to trade up next year, or to acquire another bushel of talent.

My thoughts for our remaining picks (having whiffed so far):

- Devin Moore, RB, Wyoming - long-term replacement for Kevin Faulk
- Brian Hoyer, QB, Michigan St.
- Everette Pedescleaux or Zach Potter, DE
- Maurice Evans, DE/OLB - maybe BB could light a fire under this kid.
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Old 04-26-2009, 03:59 PM   #2
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Default Re: My thoughts on the draft

Your insight has been tremendous for the last 2 months leading up to this weekend. Thank you...........

Well Zack Follett is sitting here for us, how would that cap off a great weekend ?
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Old 04-26-2009, 04:05 PM   #3
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Default Re: My thoughts on the draft

Quote:
Originally Posted by mayoclinic View Post
I have to admit, I was a bit put off yesterday by how the first 2 rounds went. Not what I expected. Part of me assumed that was good news - BB has never failed to surprise me, and I would be skeptical if he actually did what I thought he should do. But part of me was admittedly a bit bummed out.

Looking at the bigger picture today, BB's plan actually compares fairly well to what I wanted to the Pats to do, though with different players than I had targeted:

1. I wanted to improve the pass rush at OLB, specifically either with Barwin (long-term) and Jason Taylor (short term) or with a trade for Julius Peppers. We've passed on Barwin, but Peppers and Taylor are still options, and we have plenty of ammo to trade for Peppers without cannabalizing our draft if we want to, and can figure out a way to fit his contract in. [B]It seems clear that BB has more confidence in our young OLBs (Crable and Redd) than I gave him credit for, and is not panicking to make a move. I'm disappointed about Barwin and will follow his career with interest, but I have to trust BB's judgment in not making a move for him.

2. I wanted to improve the secondary. Once we signed Bodden and Springs I didn't think we would go CB day 1 in the draft, unless it was a CB/S type like Malcolm Jenkins or Sean Smith. I mainly thought we should target an attacking, physical safety with good coverage ability to complement Brandon Meriweather as a future starter. Louis Delmas was my guy, but I can't complain with the Patrick Chung pick (and who knows, BB might have taken Delmas if he hadn't gone one pick earlier). And with the Ellis Hobbs trade (which makes sense given that we weren't likely to sign him after 2009, seeing what the CB market was like) the Butler pick makes much more sense. If Leigh Bodden shows some of his Cleveland form and we can sign him long term we would have a long-term CB rotation of Butler, Bodden, Wheatley and Wilhite - potentially a better rotation even than 2003. And Meriweather-Chung-Sanders is a solid safety core. [B]It seems clear that upgrading the secondary was BB's biggest priority this offseason[B], much as adding speed at LB was his top priority last year.

3. I wanted to add depth at DL, both at DT and DE. My dream was Jarren Gilbert at DE in the 2nd and a 3rd-6th round DT such as Chris Baker, Sammie Lee Hill, Vaughn Martin, Dorell Scott or Terrance Knighton. BB clearly agreed with adding depth at DL but went DT first with Ron Brace. I was taken by surprise by this move, but again, IBBIT.

4. I wanted to add a possible starter at SILB to complement Mayo and Guyton. Unless we could trade up for Aaron Curry, my preference was taking one in the 3rd-4th round, with a preference for Jason Williams. Williams went early in the 3rd round, but Tyrone McKenzie is a similar type of player who should make a nice addition to the ILB rotation. No argument there.

5. I wanted to add a long-term player at WR in the 3rd-5th round, with my favorite target being Mike Wallace from Mississippi. Wallace went #90, one pick after BB took Brandon Tate. Tate wasn't on my board because of injury and MJ issues, but if BB wants to take a gamble on a high upside guy who wouldn't otherwise have been available, it's fine by me.

6. I wanted to add long-term depth at OL, both at OT and OG. My choices were William Beatty at OT and TJ Lang, Trevor Canfield, and Brandon Walker at OG. BB clearly agreed with adding depth at OL, but liked different guys. I'm a bit surprised by Sebastian Vollmer in the 2nd, but if BB likes Vollmer, Ohrnberger, and Bussey, then I can't argue it.

In addition, BB showed why he is so much smarter than everyone else, including of course me. He did all of that while saving cap room by trading out of the 1st round, and while acquiring 2 additional 2010 second round picks. That gives us ammo to trade for an impact player (possibly even one of Peppers, Suggs or Dansby, though I think that is very unlikely), to trade up next year, or to acquire another bushel of talent.

My thoughts for our remaining picks (having whiffed so far):

- Devin Moore, RB, Wyoming - long-term replacement for Kevin Faulk
- Brian Hoyer, QB, Michigan St.
- Everette Pedescleaux or Zach Potter, DE
- Maurice Evans, DE/OLB - maybe BB could light a fire under this kid.
I liked what they did...although I didn't really have any binkies really. Was not upset at all WHEN it happened or after...in fact the more I looked at it the better I felt..From really good...to appraoching a quiet VERY good.
1---I think that they did not go OLB early really means JTaylor may be on the way here. I also wanted Barwin..but?? I thought early second might have been too early..and the other picks were a lot stronger..and better. If he was available later..maybe he would have takem him.
2---Loved what they did with the defensive backfield..even though it was kind of sad to see EH go.
3---Loved Brace..that was a great pick. NT depth needed.
4---Good pick in McKenzie.
5---Gamble was good..he's young given him time.
6---More projections developmental players which is fine..
I really love what he has done..without spending a TON of money..which is always god and without the flash and hype that gets in the way. Thinking maybe QB Hoyer...OR the DEs or a TE...ILB......Maybe one of the 4...a Center??? Interesting..
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Old 04-26-2009, 04:07 PM   #4
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You made the draft room a good place to be with your refreshing posts this off season. Thanks for all the great work .
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Old 04-26-2009, 04:12 PM   #5
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Default Re: My thoughts on the draft

Loved reading all your posts, Mayo. Good job!
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Old 04-26-2009, 04:13 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Riddler View Post
Your insight has been tremendous for the last 2 months leading up to this weekend. Thank you...........
+1 here. Excellent insight these past few months
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Old 04-26-2009, 04:21 PM   #7
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Default Re: My thoughts on the draft

Good job Mayo, my mind cannot comprehend all these guys, what position they play etc.. I like the prognostication and guess work, something I do not do well.
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Old 04-26-2009, 04:21 PM   #8
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Thanks for the kind words, though it's not about me being right or wrong. No self-pity here. It's more a question of making sense out of what BB does. I generally assume there will be a few "WTF" moments in any BB draft where he does something totally unpredictable, which often turns out in the long run to be a good decision and sometimes a brilliant one. Matt Cassel is perhaps the most notable case in point.

I think BB clearly has a long-term plan, of which the draft is only a small piece. He's the best in the business at setting up future moves with his current ones. I can't wait to see how this team turns out.
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"The key to any successful organization is to anticipate things, not react to them." - Michael Lombardi
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Old 04-26-2009, 04:31 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Riddler View Post
Your insight has been tremendous for the last 2 months leading up to this weekend. Thank you...........
Totally agree, thanks Mayo.

I don't think there are many on this board who don't think the lack of pass rush was an achilles heal last year, injuries or not. It will be interesting to see how BB addresses it going forward--by acquiring another player, which would make most of us fans the happiest, or otherwise.

Regardless, I think we are stacked to make a SB run. Can't wait to see Brady throwing to Moss, Welker, et al in TC.
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Old 04-26-2009, 05:04 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by mayoclinic View Post
I'm a bit surprised by Sebastian Vollmer in the 2nd, but if BB likes Vollmer, Ohrnberger, and Bussey, then I can't argue it.

I was completely blindsided by the Vollmer pick as well, but he gets an A+ from me on the eyeball test.



Thanks Mayo for your excellent posts and insight.
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