patfanken

It's Tuesday afternoon that pain is still raw, but you can't post all the time in the good times and run away in the bad (or what amounts to bad for a Pats fan). It should be noted that I haven't read anything on the sight since the end of the game. And I won't be watching anything concerning football until at LEAST the start of the Superbowl. (in other words what might be the most productive 2 weeks I've spent since the start of the season. ) So I hope you will indulge me in this exercise in mental health.

THE GAME -

1. Sometimes you're wrong, and then there are the times when you are REALLY wrong. And this was one of those times for me. The score didn't surprise me, but the teams that wound up with those scores certainly did. And that wasn't all that surprised me.

2. I think the game plan surprised me a bit on both sides of the ball – On offense I was surprised we didn't run more and rarely tried to run outside the tackles when we did. I was surprised our passing attack went directly where the Ravens had to be expecting it. To Welker, Hernandez and Lloyd. We rarely dumped it off to open RB's. We didn't try to integrate Fells or Hooman into the attack, and rarely tested the Ravens deep, to try and open up the middle more. The Welker completion in the 4th where he did an out and up was so wide open you have to wonder if it had been there all game....and not just for Welker. The Ravens played us to clog the middle and attack the underneath routes.....and that's pretty much where we threw the ball.

3. On defense not having Jones and losing Talib hurt, but I was surprised we never did what was necessary to develop some kind of consistent pass rush. I don't know what the final percentage was, but I'm sure it was lower than what we'd be seeing in recent games. And when we did get a blitz it was a pretty straight forward one that was easily picked up.

4. I was also surprised that it was the usual suspects that continued to plague the D in the 2nd half. RB's releasing from the backfield and TE's in the middle of the field.

5. Ultimately the team that played most like the Patriots were the Ravens. They didn't give up the ball, while collecting some TO's. They were patient, didn't commit many penalties and were more timely making the big plays. That's how the Pats usually win games. Kudos to the Ravens

6. I'm sure Ridley was lambasted for the fumble. He shouldn't be. When you are knocked unconscious, you will likely fumble the ball. Credit the hit, don't blame the ball carrier for that one..

7. Wes Welker made some big plays and had a couple of key drops. I think we've seen enough of that pattern to believe that, it is what it is. Over all the good outweighs the bad... by a lot. But ultimately you have to determine “at what price does it stop being worth it”. I don't know what that price is, but the Pats do. I'm sure it will be the #1 question of the off season until its resolved.....and I hope its one way or the other QUICKLY. (before the draft).

8. Ultimately the reason for the Pats loss is clear. Red zone efficiency, on both sides of the ball. Think about it. The Pats actually gained more yards, more first downs, 2 more sacks, and only lost the TOP by a minute despite the 2 TO's. So while both teams got into the red zone 4 times, the Pats went 1-4 and the Ravens went 4-4. Reverse the results and you can reverse the score.

Of course some of the problem can be blamed on not having the greatest red zone threat in the game available, but we WERE the highest scoring team in the league while missing him for 8 games this season. Some of the problems were self inflicted, some were that the Ravens simply played better red zone defense that we did..

SEASON OVERVIEW

1. It might not seem like it now, but this WAS a better team than the one we had last season. The defense showed a significant improvement across the board, despite being the 2nd youngest in the league. The offense underwent a major reconstruction on the OL between retirements and injuries and managed the transition well, become a younger more athletic OL, who played well and has a vast upside.

2. It was unfortunate we never got to see what the 2 TE offense could really do with both guys there

3. I think the Brandon Lloyd acquisition worked out well. He might not have been the “deep threat” some expected, but he was NEVER a deep threat to start with. In the end he was a fairly effective outside the numbers receiver. Now we need to give him some help.

4. The QB played well....again. If he's slowing down, its hard to see where. He's certainly not perfect, but no one is (except after they retire) For the next 2 years I wouldn't trade my QB situation with any team.

THE OFF SEASON -

Defense -

1. Of course a lot will depend on if Talib is on the team. But the fact is that by the end of the season, Alphonzo Dennard ended up being a very solid, if unspectacular CB. If he'd been a first round pick, it would have been a good one, but being a 7th round pick, it was spectacular. He's going to be a good starter in the league for a long time, and for us for at least the next 3 years. So with Dennard and Dowling coming back, even if Talib isn't here, the area where I see the need to upgrade is still at the Safety position.

2. Chung is gone. I think we can all agree on that. His only value would be as solid depth for close to the vet minimum.. I'm probably higher on Gregory than most, but he's limited. I still think he'd be valuable as depth and spot starter. The draft is giving us an opportunity to upgrade him. This is going to be a great draft for safeties. Maybe Wilson is the one who can make a jump next year, but the bottom line is that in order for the defense to continue to progress, I'd rather not meed to have Gregory be the starter.

3. We need help on the DL – Obviously getting someone who can pressure from the inside is a priority, but its a priority for the OTHER 31 teams as well, and picking 29th in each round greatly mitigates the chances of that happening.

4. However we might find an impact player in that area of the draft at WR and S. So as much as I'd love to draft a Dlman high, anyone we DO draft is likely to be a 2-3 year project. NOT an immediate impact. If we ARE going to make a big splash on the DL, maybe the way to go is to pay what's necessary to sign this kid Armstead out of the CFL.

5. Watching other team's big WR's snatching balls away from receivers while covered certainly makes me feel jealous. We need help at WR. Either lets find a Tory Smith type deep threat, or an Anquan Boldin big strong guy.type. Preferably someone who fits both descriptions, but I'll take one of either. Lets get younger, bigger and faster at WR.

6. Here is a list of the key FA's the Pats have to sign...or not. I'd love to sign them all, but we need them to sign at LEAST 4 of them. Who will remain and who will walk is anyone's guess. I mean REALLY, all we can do now is practice uniformed speculation.

a. Welker
b Talib
c. Volmer
d. Edelman
e. Thomas
f. Arrington

7. Probably the one accurate thing I said last week in my 2 long posts was that in reality the Pats' roster has been almost completely retooled the last 2 years.(only 5 starters remain from the Jets loss in just 2010.) We've actually have over achieved, IMHO, getting as deep into the playoffs with the flawed teams we've had.

It's NEXT year that I believe will be the start of a great 3 year run, where I think we will see 2 more Lombardi's added to the Pats HOF. I believe we will start to see a team where the defense will start to pull more of the weight and an offense that isn't going to slack off. There might be teams as strong and balanced as the Pats, but NONE will be better. The Pats aren't going away soon, so the haters just better get used to it.

Have a great off season guys. Thanks for all your responses to my missives over this season. I'm off to enjoy my productive 2 weeks and await the start of the draft watch.

abdul7

Thanks Ken for your post. I really enjoyed reading it and have to agree on the WR side and S to improve for next season. Like you i am staying away from reading or watching until the kickoff of the SB. Sure will love it if Randy gets his ring. Thanks again and take care.
Abdul.

Gronkandez

Amen. The team was better. Although it didn't all up in show up in the end, C Jones looks like a great pick, Dennard should be here to stay, Hightower although slow looks promising, Solder has a very good year, and Ridley made the leap. That's a lot of good young talent.

Now about the Wide Receiver situation.....

aluminum seats

Agree with most of this, including the area of focus in the offseason. I'm not particularly attuned to college players coming out, so glad to hear it'll be safety-heavy. WR & line and away we go.

On the loss, the failures of the coaching/gameplan are just perplexing to me, honestly. Hopefully it was a fluke--it's not just players who can screw up.

__________________
"So I'm going to throw myself against the wall...
'Cause I'd rather feel bad than not feel anything at all."

AQPE

Ken,

Thanks for another great season of posts, I really look forward to them. I'm pretty much with you in terms of the football talk hiatus. It will be a couple of months before I'm all that fired up about anything relative to the NFL. However, with all due consideration to my passion for the Pats, I have to admit I think this will be a fun Super Bowl to watch as a neutral observer, and we here at the "AQPE" house have a tradition of hosting a nice gathering for folks that we aim to uphold no matter who is in it.

Regarding the Pats outlook for 2013, the way I personally look at this is definitely in line with yours. We have an excellent team that we root for, one that - as with all teams in the league - has some flaws to address.

Offense

• They are obviously set at QB. I think Brady's contract runs through the 2014 season, so we can count on him the next two years. As for Mallett, I don't see them getting a huge offer for him this offseason, so I think he will be here for another year, importantly including the off-season (I think the off-season he had in 2012 is the reason they made the move with Hoyer, which at the time really surprised me). I expect them to draft another QB for development purposes this year.

• I think they are set at RB. Woodhead and Demps are the "X-factors" here. I would really love them to keep both, but I kind of think that if Demps has shown them anything this year (in spite of his "grevious injury"), they will go with him and let Woody seek his payday elsewhere.

• I think they are set at TE. I don't buy into the recent agita about Gronk's injuries, I know he missed his senior year at ASU but he was pretty much fine until last year's AFCCG. Both Gronk and Hernandez, however, do have enough of an injury history that it is important to have the right kind of depth. That means 4 TEs on the roster again. I think Ballard comes back and takes Fells' spot, and we keep "Hooman" for TE#4.

• Regarding the OL, I think signing Vollmer is a must. I can't say it is more important than Talib or Welker, but to me it is very close. To me, the few games he seemed right this year, he was their best OL by far. His injury history is going to give the Pats some heartburn about offering a big deal, but I think it will have to be done and that they should suck it up and sign him. If they get that done, then you have to feel pretty good about Solder, and about Mankins playing better next year than he did this year. That leaves RG and C, and depth. I'm OK with Connolly, Wendell, Thomas, and McDonald, but if they drafted an OL in the middle rounds I won't be throwing a shoe at the TV.

• WR is a problem, and a first class disaster if they don't get Welker signed. To me, Lloyd is "fine," nothing more, and the rest of those on the roster right now don't do much for me as receivers (all due respect to Slater on ST, of course). Look, I get it with BB, he doesn't put a lot of value on WR, but his track record at this position is poor. He inherited Troy Brown, he made good trades for Gaffney, Moss, and Welker, Lloyd and Patten were good signings, and Stallworth was decent for half a season (plus one game this year). The rest has been pretty poor. To me, the WR position needs to be one of the two focal points for the offseason (the other being cornerback). Maybe this is what Daboll will be doing. They need to get bigger and they need a true stretch the field guy, and they need someone who can return kicks also. I am hoping this is where they go with the #1 pick; I know it is late in the round, but if a Torrey Smith or even a Muhammad Sanu type of talent is taken, it will be a big upgrade for them at this position.

Defense

• Regarding the DL, obviously Vince is a stud, and off what I saw I think they can be confident they have something to build on with Jones. I think this group played pretty well all year, and very well at times, and while I would like to see them upgrade talent-wise, to me there are bigger fish to fry in building the 2013 Pats. I hope they stick with Love, Ninkovich, Francis, and Deadrick, but I don't have a strong feeling about the others. I think they are OK here, not great, and that's what I expect from the next year also.

• I think they are pretty much set at LB. Mayo is an upper-echelon LB, not a star by any means but certainly very good. I am hopeful about Hightower following the off-season, what I saw from him in college gives me confidence he will make the leap next year. As for Spikes, we all know his limitations, but I think when he is healthy he makes a lot of plays, and after watching them struggle a few years trying to replace their inside LBs after Ted Johnson's career waned, I'm more than fine with what Spikes brings to the table. I am a Fletcher fan, so I think he comes back and is productive again, and is their primary backup for the inside spot. For the outside LB backup, I don't think they need a "coverage linebacker," I prefer they go with a safety to cover the FB and TE they will face in certain situations. They do need an upgrade over Niko, Tarp, Rivera, and White, at least one player that can legitimately step in and be productive if and when needed in an injury situation. Maybe a veteran free agent can fill that bill. That leaves two or three spots for the ST types.

• Relative to S, I know I'm in the minority right now - and yes, I did watch the games this year - but if they went into next season with McCourty and Gregory as the starters, Wilson and Ebner as the primary backups, they would be close to where I would feel OK about this group. I would love to see them draft a safety in the first 3 rounds if the right type were there, but if not, then I think they can cobble together something good enough from what they have on the roster, plus maybe another veteran type. Ed Reed ain't walkin' through that door, but history suggests to me that there are some value guys out there, including CB converts, that they can plug in. My biggest issue with this group is coaching, I think they need an upgrade there more than anything else. More on that below.

• As I said above, CB is also a problem, and a "plane crash" if they don't sign Talib. I'm fine with Dennard and OK with keeping Cole. They can let Arrington walk, and put Dowling into the Hart Lee Dykes "would-a, could-a, should-a" section of the Patriots history book and move on. With what I hope are the signings of Welker, Vollmer, and Talib, I'm guessing they aren't going big for a CB except if one they think could be special (major Dowling/Wheatley alert here!) falls to them in the rounds 1 or 2 (and if it happens, that shoe is heading towards the flat panel). So, what do they do other than get Talib signed? To me, here again they need to get the coaching in order. I'm not going to tell you what I secretly am hoping they do to address the DB coaching, but I will say that using the term "DB" here gives you a bit of a hint. Too many failures these past five or six years to ignore, BB has to accept a change in thinking.

Special Teams

• They are set at P and K, and I have no clue about LS. Gostkowski's inconsistency does not trouble me very much, I think his performance is at least average for the NFL. I say it ain't broke, so don't screw with it.

• PR and KR need an upgrade, but if they don't get that, I'm at least comfortable that they aren't giving games away with turnovers in their return game. Their penalty rate on returns also didn't seem to be a problem.

• Kick coverage, in spite of the Texans game, was solid this year and I'm comfortable with their outlook for next year with Slater returning and Ebner developing.

Summary

So, the outlook seems pretty bright to me, but there will be plenty of work for BB and pals to do, and I only hope they come up with better solutions to these same issues at WR and CB than they have been able to these last 5 years.

One other thought, which I feel we can never say too often: we should embrace the truly special time we are in as fans of this team. Yes it is frustrating to see them come so close 4 times recently and not get the next Lombardi. It will not get any easier - think about the possible progression of the Colts with Luck, or the Texans coming back with Cushing, and never underestimate those Steelers with Tomlin and Roethlisberger. Can anyone tell me that if they go 12-4 again next year and lose at home in the AFCCG, they wouldn't consider that a special season? If so, then, well, God bless ya' but for this rapidly aging fan, a year like this one sure as hell beats anything I saw from the time Clive Rush was coach through when Pete Carroll was coach.

IllegalContact

on 3) the defense kept the ravens down for 40 minutes. the offense should have done more over that time.....except it never got out of the foxhole.....punting from the ravens 34 was literally quitting while they were ahead.

on 4) if the pats are going to stick with the 4-3, then they need to replace spikes in the middle...he's a 2-down guy and there's no room for that......they need a sub 4.6 guy there if they are going to stick with mayo and hightower on the outside......different story if they go back to the 3-4 which they are not far from doing.....

on 6) ridley got knocked out...can't blame him for anything except maybe putting his head down too soon........I wish our SS could hit like pollard

on 7) the pats get everything they can out of welker as a #1......but its not enough....like I said in another thread, welker is the wade boggs of NFL recievers lots of numbers that don't always translate. with the TE's and the future of vereen looking bright, we don't need a slot guy as our #1. spend the money on a guy like wallace, and draft a slot guy like ryan swopes

OVERVIEW:
on 1) I think the middle of the defense needs work....outside of wilfork, it is either too slow or too small or both......
- a guy like jessie williams should be available in the first round to put next to wilfork.....deaderick and love are nice guys to have on the bench, but they're liabilities as starters.....i'd also consider making a play fo rterence knighton....having 3 330lb guys who can both anchor and move the pocket should keep opposing QB's from stepping up and get our end closer.
- a guy like Nico Johnson to replace spikes as our MLB.....245lbs and is better than a 4.6
- a guy like Laron Landry who will not cost much and will at least make someone think about who's going to pop them.......sick of watching the chungs and gregory's of the world bounce off of 3rd down backs and WR's...dennard, talib, and mccourty provide plenty of coverage to let this guy hammer away

on 2) Our TE's are counted on for alot......I think the overall workload for AH and RG is a little too big which is why they get hurt. between catching balls and blocking, the risk of injury is greater when they are used so much.....they need 2 effective ones of each type on the roster.

on 3) agreed

on 4) I don't think brady's slowing down quite yet, at least not physically. But I do think the years have softened him quite a bit. I think he gives up more easily now.

THE OFFSEASON:

on 1) whether it's talib or another vet, there are going to be a ton of them on the market this year......of course the first choice is talib and hopefully he wants to be here, but if not, they should try to replace him with another vet and not a draft pick. as for dowling, I'd count him out until he proves otherwise. 2 years with very little PT make a mediocre player to start with out of a job. if they get real safeties, maybe they'll just move mccourty back

on 2) chung is gone, and gregory should be......it should not be hard to find a street FA that's better tha neither one of these guys

on 3) there's plenty of help always available at the end of round 1....grab a guy like jessie williams....as for DE, I'd give these guys a year in the system.....they're pretty athletic. JPP didn't get it going until year 2

on 4) given brady is 35, I'm not sure that grabbing a WR early will be good value......not many of them get it going their rookie years the way we would hope if that player is to replace welker.

bottom line: i would not expect any SB wins with the current philosophy in place........some thought processes need to change

__________________
“ I think good coaches will coach with the personnel they have, and if you only have one (good) linebacker, you’re not going to play a 3–4. ”
—Hank Bullough, who installed one of the first 3–4 defenses with the New England Patriots.

patsfaninpa

I'll leave the offense to everyone else. We must upgrade the defense. Regarding point 3, you can't call for a defensive pass rush. You must have pass rushers on your team. We don't have enough of them. You have to draft them. We are paying for not getting front 7 help in that great 2011 draft for that spot. We tried to correct it last year with Chandler Jones. We signed Armond Armstead today. I'd still like a de with our top pick.

Regarding point 4. We've drafted guys who can't play in space. Why did we draft Hightower to played weakside olb? It's not a good use of assets. 1st and a pick to trade up. We could have had Levonte David instead of Tavon Wilson. In order to cover rb's and te's. Your athletes on defense have to be able to run with them. Most of ours can't.
We still need a lb who can play in the nickel. I'd like to get one in the third, or sooner if we get anything for dealing Mallett. And, we need a hard-hitting safety if you're going to sit back in coverage and give up the underneath play. You have to make them pay for it. Just like we used to do. And, the Ravens did to us on Sunday.

Style wise. We don't play an attacking defense. No biggie. Ravens showed us a big, tough, hard-hitting one can work. We can build one like they have. Let's draft some guys who can run and hit.

MoneyFX

I do agree that the team is much better this year than last year, despite last season's team getting a better record and going into the super bowl. I think the injuries did hurt at the end. Gronk would have helped in the red zone, but I didn't see them have that problem against Houston. The Talib injury was a killer. The secondary was just in a house of cards and the Ravens' talented wide receivers just took over.

But overall, I'm seeing the start of something great in New England. This team needs speed and size at WR, talent and depth at DB, speed at LB and a better interior pass rush. They will bounce back next season, learn from their mistakes and be a better team.

Terrible end to the season, but I'm still very proud of this team.

IllegalContact

I disagree.......the pats don't push the pocket back at all.......the DE's get around the OT, but when the QB can step up, it negates that rush.

I think we're fine with who we have at DE.....we need someone beside wilfork who can penetrate....deaderick and lover are just extentisons of wilfork.....

__________________
“ I think good coaches will coach with the personnel they have, and if you only have one (good) linebacker, you’re not going to play a 3–4. ”
—Hank Bullough, who installed one of the first 3–4 defenses with the New England Patriots.

VJCPatriot

And the guy who delivered the hit was Pollard. Man that guy is like the anti-patriot. He ended one of Tom Brady's seasons. And I think he took out Gronk's knee too in 2011. Man I hate that guy. And just now he knocked out Ridley cold causing a fumble that pretty much spelled the end of the game. I think he must have made a deal with the devil to hurt the Pats the most out of any team in the NFL.

The Pollard effect strikes New England again - Sports - The Prospector - University of Texas at El Paso

As for our WR situation... man Welker drops some big balls. I don't know what's up with him. First the Superbowl last year and now the AFCCG. Is he just a super regular season guy and just an 'okay' postseason guy? If so, is he going to be worth the 10m in cap room per year that he will command? A tough question for Pats management.

I guess there's the draft to look forward to and the Superbowl halftime show. I really don't care who wins whether it be Ravens or 49ers. I think we need secondary depth and passrush help. Flacco could have made finger sandwiches back there. He had THAT much time to sit back and throw his patented 'moonballs' that our secondary players seemed incapable of covering.

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