patfanken

Disclaimer: Baring catastrophic injuries, inexplicably bad calls, and massive turnovers, the more I think on it, the more I see this game ending up with a double digit lead. I know that the Ravens are a team to be respected. I know that they are coming off a 2 game roll. I know that they create some match up problems for us on defense. But briefly (for me) these are some thoughts that have occurred to me this day before the big game.

1. The stat that keeps echoing in my mind that gives me the basis for my opinion is this one. This season the Pats have played 7 games against top 8 defenses in the league (Denver, Niners, Texans (2) Jets (2) and Seahawks). Their average ppg against the league's best defenses is 35.5. That's a fairly large sample, and it should be noted that in only one of those games (the first Jets) were both Gronk and Hernandez available.

The Ravens defense may be playing better now, but they finished 17th and averaged just 23 fewer yards than our Pats D. The Bottom line here is that I just cannot see any scenario, other than a complete breakdown, where the Ravens will hold the Pats to under 30 points, and likewise, I don't see any scenario where the Ravens will score more than that.

2. If you want to feel even better, check out the Football outsiders thread, which gives a much more compelling set of facts and statistics that back up my opinion. Its really a must read, if you haven't already

3. While taking a brisk walk this morning - It occurred to me that last year getting to the superbowl was kind of a gift. A defense THAT bad, really shouldn't get to the superbowl, let alone nearly win it. This year's defense is clearly better, but still not good-great. Getting to the superbowl with such a young and inexperienced D would be a great accomplishment.

Now what must be REALLY very scary to the rest of the AFC, is that this current version of the NE Patriots was REALLY set to peak for a superbowl run, NEXT year. Where the best offense in the league will finally be matched with a true top 10 defense.

By next year the defense will be a year older, wiser, and more competent. Tweaks will surely be made and even MORE talent added, but what this D needs more than anything else is snaps. Plus an offense that will add more WR help and a healthy Gronk, plus a stronger running attack, is going to be really formidable.

Sorry about not following the Patriot way and thinking ahead, but it was cold out there and it just popped into my head.

4. I won't be watching any of the pre-game nonsense. I assume they all are going to be either anointings of Colin Kaepernick and the Niners as the best QB and best team of all time, and homages to Ray Lewis and the determination of the Baltimore Ravens. I don't need to deal with that crap. I'd only end up being annoyed

5. Speaking of the Niners (our likely superbowl opponent) has there been an NFL team in the last 10 years that seems to have FEWER injuries than the Niners this season?. They played 10 of their defensive starter over 95% of their snaps and NO ONE has gotten hurt, until JSmith tweeked his arm. Plus I don't recall any big offensive injuries, except the concussion to Alex Smith that allowed Harbaugh to make the switch to Kaepernick. Even their injuries end up as pluses.

What makes this more interesting is that when, after losing just one guy (JSmith) for a couple of games really affected the SF defense. It make me wonder that if the pendulum starts to swing against them, injury wise, are they deep enough to overcome it?

6. In the past I have never dwelt much on Ray Lewis' brush with the law back in 2000. It just seemed to me that over the last 13 years he's not only been a great football player, but an exemplary citizen. However there was a thread here, this week that gave a link to a detailed account of what happened, and after reading it, you can't help but come to the realization that Lewis was criminally involved in those murders. I don't believe he murdered those 2 guys, but I he absolutely was involved in the coverup and destruction of evidence that helped let 2 guys get away with murder. He was very lucky not to get jail time for that incident.

You still cannot ignore all the positive things his done over the last 13 years, and the positive things he is likely to do with the rest of his life. Its likely that the events of that night in Jan. of 2000, turned Ray's life around and made him into the positive force he's become, and one bad act shouldn't ruin what amounts to a lifetime of good deeds....BUT it shouldn't be forgotten or swept under the rug either. Ray has to own the bad as well as the good. jmho

OK, I got to run, got to drive to Porttand ME this morning, and I told you this would be a "short" one. Enjoy the game. Don't let the mediots worry you. The Ravens CANNOT beat the Pats if the Pats play well. and I fully expect them to play well. Remember this is Dean Pees vs Josh McDainiels

PATSYLICIOUS

Excellent post as always Ken. I agree with everything except for this statement. Our defense IS great at full strength. By this league's standards, it is a top 5 defense, top 10 at worst. They've been outstanding ever since the 2nd quarter of Talib's first game as a Patriot with the exception of the SF game. And that game was littered with injuries and turnovers, also played in wet conditions. This stretch includes 2 games against Houston, the 8th best scoring offense in the league. Both times they throttled that top offense, unfortunately 3 ST breakdowns, a pick by Mallet, and some poor officiating allowed them to average 21 ppg in those 2 games but my eyes tell me they did a much better job than that.

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Off The Grid

Indeed.

And Planet Hoosten's Offense was actually 2nd in the League...before we tore out their Souls.

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Buchanty

Agree with your conclusions but will not allow myself to be comfortable thinking that the Pats will win it easily.

The hardest thing to estimate is heart (echoing the Brady 6 nugget), and how much of it the Ravens can draw on for 52. I have to think that their two post season games have taken a lot out of them, in the number of snaps the D has had to take, and the very taxing Denver conditions.

I am hoping the Ravens effort can be offset by a corresponding amount of heart from the rest of our squad wanting to get TB to his record setting 6th SB and 4th ring.

Enjoy your trip to Portland, hope it allows you sample the local beers (all I have tasted so far have been very good to excellent).

Gwedd

And devoured them as a sacrifice to the Football Gods, and perhaps Cthulu.

But seriously, the Patriots are healthier going into this game than any other run I can remember. They are playing better, with fewer mistakes, and more confidence than any other time I can remember, save perhaps the 2001 SB run.

Add to that the balance in the offense. An efficient passing game and a better running game. If New England can keep that running game going, it's gonna wear down those older players on the Ravens defense. They were already sucking wind up at Denver by the end of the 1st quarter. You could see it in their expressions on the sideline.

Coach Belichick, more than anything else, demands a high level of conditioning, making certain that his players can go full-out for 60 minutes. You can see it before training camp, when EVERY player MUST pass his difficult and demanding conditioning test before they can participate.

I see the Patriot's conditioning level as being a definite factor in this game.

Thanks again, Ken, for another nice post.

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SacPete1

1. No big plays for TD's
I like our defense in the redzone and I feel like this secondary tackles quite well. I don't mind seeing drives by the Ravens so long as they end up in field goals more than TD's.

2. Special teams
Kickoff coverage has me on edge given last week and Jones is a good returner. I'll be fine if the Ravens bring it out to their 30. Better yet, Ghost nails it through the endzone. I'll be curious to see the strategy when the Pats are kicking into the wind. Then again, if there are numerous kickoffs, then this will be a good sign.

3. Ed Reed
I think this guy affects the offense more than any other player in the league. Tom is the quickest reader of coverages but Reed strays often from his assgined coverage with instincts and/or "guessing" which at times make Tom hesitate or affect his throws. I think offenses get in trouble when their decisions are to avoid him or his area because he'll leave his responsibility early. Attack him! Let Tom see his guesses.

IllegalContact

Bah......the pats just need to take care of business in their own house. It is their game to dictate the outcome, not the ravens.

They don't have to do anything special ... Vanilla on defense, fast paced on offense...keep it simple and not over think and they will win big

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RayVNLewis

We got this..

Ravens held Broncos to 21 points.. Patriots will not hold our offense below 30.

Ravens 34 Patriots 28

jmt57

Your math is a bit off, unless you live in some alternate universe where teams don't kick off or punt. Those return touchdowns also gave Denver two fewer possessions, where they could have conceivably scored.

If the Redskins, Colts, and ten others could hold the Ravens to under 30, I'll guess that the Patriots can do at least as well on defense.

mgteich

Flacco is capable of big plays. We are capable of giving them up. The issue is how many and at what cost?