Archive for the ‘ Stat Breakdown ’ Category

The Patriots thought they had the Pittsburgh Steelers right where they wanted them, but in the end it wasn’t enough to steal receiver Emmanuel Sanders away and bring him to New England.

On Sunday Pittsburgh matched the Patriots $2.5 million offer sheet to Sanders, keeping him away from their Conference rival and forcing the Patriots to head back to the drawing board as they continue rebuilding what for now is still an uncertain position on their roster.

It’s already been a tough offseason for the Patriots, who lost free agent Wes Welker to the Broncos while also making the decision to part ways with Brandon Lloyd. The two accounted for nearly half of Tom Brady’s passing yards last season, sending New England into a rebuilding mode as they try to put together a more dynamic group that can be a little more effective outside the numbers.

Getting the ball down the field was definitely an issue in 2012. Last season the Patriots completion percentages ranked them 23rd in the league on throws to the deep left part of the field (31.25% completion rate), 27th on deep attempts to the middle (42.42% completion rate), and 28th on deep attempts to the right (26.32% completion rate).

They definitely took their shots, throwing 48 times down the field to the left (4th most in the NFL), 33 down the middle (6th most) and 38 down the field to the right (19th in the league).


Brandon Lloyd never ended up being the type of threat the Patriots were looking for. (FILE:USPresswire)

Looking at the numbers in our stats database, the Patriots clearly tried to make Brandon Lloyd their deep outside threat and it just didn’t work out. He was targeted a staggering 22 times with just 3 catches on deep attempts to the left (13% completion rate), along with 14 targets with just 5 catches on deep attempts to the right (35%).

Obviously the Patriots weren’t happy with his production and as a result they’ve opted to move in another direction.

So far they’ve added free agents Danny Amendola, Michael Jenkins and Donald Jones, but the group overall is still in need of an impact player. Sanders would have provided that and despite the price of a 3rd round pick would have potentially eliminated the uncertainty that comes with drafting someone, which is something that has plagued New England each time they’ve tried to select and develop a receiver in recent years.

As it stands right now they have Jenkins, Jones, Amendola, Julian Edelman, Matthew Slater, Jeremy Ebert, Kamar Aiken and Andre Holmes rounding out their depth chart. It’s an extremely thin group at this point, with Amendola as the only real established veteran who has shown the ability to be a playmaker. However he’s had some injury issues and the Patriots will be looking for him to try and put together a complete season for them.

New England brought back Edelman recently and he gives them some depth, but it’s tough to expect much from him given his past production. They tried to get him more involved in the offense last year but he was inconsistent, although he’s been a weapon for them on punt returns. Unfortunately he too has had his share of injury issues and joins Amendola in that department.

With Sanders off the table the Patriots are left having to reevaluate their options as they continue trying to rearm Brady with some firepower. One more big playmaker is definitely something they need, so the big question we’re left with now is waiting to see exactly where they’ll ultimately find him.

New England could still address the position in the draft or potentially add depth when teams make additional roster cuts in the coming months, but by trying to make a move to acquire Sanders it’s clear they know they have an issue. How they solve it will continue to be one of the big question marks this offseason and hopefully they’ll find an answer sooner rather than later.

With Welker Gone, Patriots Have a Big Void on 3rd Down

Wednesday another era came to an end here in New England after veteran wide receiver Wes Welker agreed to terms on a contract with the Denver Broncos, which now has the Patriots having to start the process of figuring out how they’ll be operating offensively next season.

Welker was obviously one of New England’s most productive players, but one area that they’re going to miss him most is on 3rd down.  Last season the veteran receiver accounted for 30 of the 92 completions Tom Brady had.  The next closest player was Danny Woodhead who had 13, followed by Aaron Hernandez (12), Brandon Lloyd (11) and Rob Gronkowski (11).


With Welker gone, the Patriots have big shoes to fill. (FILE:USPresswire)

Of those 30 3rd down receptions 21 of them were first downs, nearly double that of the next closest player (Rob Gronkowski).

Overall Welker led the team with 72 first downs last season, with Brandon Lloyd right behind him with 50.  With Welker gone and Lloyd rumored to be next, both players accounted for 122 of the 256 first downs the team had in 2012.  Clearly 2013 is going to potentially feature more or less an entirely new group, which the Patriots started working on not long after the Welker news was announced.

They signed Rams free agent receiver Danny Amendola to a 5-year contract, which is a start.  He’ll give them a solid weapon out of the slot but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be a guy who will catch 100+ passes and shoulder the load that Welker did.

He was the Rams best 3rd down receiver, which will certainly help as the Patriots start formulating a plan heading into next season.  According to Pro-Football-Reference Amendola was the Rams leading 3rd down receiver from 2009-2012, having been targeted 113 times with 67 completions, including four touchdowns.

Josh McDaniels familiarity with Amendola will help with the learning curve that he’ll have to get over, and the fact that they’ve signed him so early in the offseason will also help.  He’ll also have minicamps and OTA’s to hopefully get acclimated with the Patriots’ system.

However, the Patriots are now officially in transition offensively and will certainly have a different look next season.  They’re fortunate that they have Gronkowski and Hernandez as building blocks as they start putting things back together, but the surrounding cast is certainly changing.  Hopefully as the next pieces are added New England continues at least bringing in guys who are under 30 and are proven commodities.  They’ve had too many question marks in recent years with some of the veterans they’ve tried to bring in, and obviously we’ve seen how that’s worked out.

Clearly now with Welker in the rear view the Patriots have some moves that still need to be made.  Hopefully after letting go of one of their most productive receivers ever, the pressure will definitely be on to make sure they bring in players who can keep the chains moving next season.

Patriots Mesko Was a Difference Maker Sunday

Heading into Sunday’s showdown against the Ravens if history is any indication, the odds are pretty good that this will be a tough game that could come down to a field goal between two great football teams.


Mesko was a difference maker Sunday against Houston. (FILE:USPresswire)

When it comes to low scoring games every yard counts, as does starting field position.  That being said, one thing that really stood out during their win over the Texans was how effective punter Zoltan Mesko was in terms of really helping the Patriots defense out after their offense sputtered and really could have given Houston great field position.

He’s been terrific all season, and he finished the afternoon with 5 punts for 264 yards (52.8 avg – 49.4 net) including two inside the 20.  His longest one of the day went for 64 yards, which was extremely impressive considering New England punted from their own 15 yard line and put Houston all the way back on the other end of the field at their own 21.

Here’s a breakdown of his afternoon:

1) 1st QTR – 12:48: Patriots punt from their own 27 yard line.  Punt goes for 61 yards with a 5 yard return, Texans start at their own 17.

2) 1st QTR – 6:00: Patriots punt from their own 35 yard line.  Punt goes for 57 yards with a 12 yard return, and the Texans start at their own 20.

3) 2nd QTR – 0:31: Mesko punts from their own 30 yard line.   Punt goes for 32 yards with no return, Texans start at their own 38.

4) 3rd QTR – 8:57: Patriots punt from their own 40 yard line.  Punt goes for 50 yards and no return, Texans start at their own 10.

5) 4th QTR – 10:11:  Patriots punt from their own 15 yard line.  Punt goes for 64 yards and no return, Texans start at their own 21.

On three of Mesko’s five punts the Patriots punted from at or inside their own 30 yard line, two of which Mesko managed to pin the Texans at or inside their own 20.  Granted this game ended up being more or less in hand, but against tougher opponents the swing in field position is huge because shorter kicks can lead to – at the very least – field goal attempts.

Against the Ravens that’s what it could come down to.  But fortunately with a kicker like Mesko New England has the upper hand in at least making sure Baltimore will have longer to go on each drive.

That’s an asset that can’t be overlooked, and one that makes you really appreciate just how valuable he is to this football team.

After going over the full stat breakdown from Sunday’s win over Houston, while looking at the rushing statistics it was interesting to note that the Patriots completely avoided running off right tackle or off the end on that side of the line.

Here’s a full breakdown of each zone including player stats:

LEFT END
Stevan Ridley: 2 carries, 4 yards (2.0 avg)
Shane Vereen: 1 carry, -1 yards (-1.0 avg)

strong>LEFT TACKLE
Shane Vereen: 3 carries, 29 yards (9.7 avg), 1 TD
Stevan Ridley: 1 carry, 23 yards (23.0 avg)

LEFT GUARD
Shane Vereen: 1 carry, 4 yards (4.0 avg)
Danny Woodhead: 1 carry, 0 yards (0.0 avg)
Stevan Ridley: 3 carries, -1 yards (-0.3 avg)

MIDDLE
Stevan Ridley: 4 carries, 22 yards (5.5 avg)
Shane Vereen: 1 carry, 1 yard (1.0 avg)

RIGHT GUARD
Stevan Ridley: 5 carries, 34 yards (6.8 avg), 1 TD
Shane Vereen: 1 carry, 8 yards (8.0 avg)

RIGHT TACKLE
No attempts.

RIGHT END
No attempts.

Charting the Jaguars Rushing Attempts vs the Patriots

Taking a look at the rushing chart it appears the Jaguars didn’t have a lot of confidence running in between the guards or the tackles during Sunday’s game, registering just one carry off tackle while the majority were either up the middle or around the ends.

Here’s a breakdown of how how they attacked New England:

OVERALL TOTALS:
M.Owens: 10 Carries, 42 Yards (4.2 avg) 3 First Downs
R.Murphy: 10 Carries, 29 Yards (2.9 avg) 2 First Downs
C.Henne: 2 Carries, 22 Yards (11.0 avg) 2 First Downs
G.Jones: 1 Carry, 0 Yards

BY DIRECTION:

Left End:
R.Murphy: 1 Carry, 4 Yards (4.0 avg)

Left Tackle:
No Carries Registered

Left Guard:
No Carries Registered

Middle:
M.Owens: 6 Carries 18 Yards (3.0 avg)
R.Murphy: 6 Carries 14 Yards (2.3 avg)
C.Henne: 1 Carry, 7 Yards
G.Jones: 1 Carry, 0 Yards

Right Guard:
R.Murphy: 1 Carry, -3 Yards

Right Tackle:
No Carries Registered

Right End:
M.Owens: 4 Carries, 24 Yards (6.0 avg)
C.Henne: 1 Carry, 15 Yards
R.Murphy: 2 Carries, 14 Yards (7.0 avg)

FILM REVIEW: Spotlight on a Creative Third Down Pressure by 49ers

As mentioned in this other film review entry, third down was a big problem in the first half last night and the fact the 49ers were able to create pressure using just four guys up front was obviously an issue.

While the other one pointed out a match-up where Dan Connolly just got beat by Ray McDonald, San Francisco was creative with some of the things they did with moving around Aldon Smith, which is highlighted on this 3rd and 8 play early in the first quarter at midfield.

FRAME ONE:

On this play you can see Aldon Smith (circled) lining up on the end. They’re going to have him wait for half a second for Justin Smith to tie up Nate Solder and Logan Mankins, and then Smith is going to slide down and come in past Mankins spot at left guard.


FRAME TWO:

In this frame you can see Aldon Smith come in behind Justin Smith, who is now engaged with Mankins and Solder. He’s going to slip in behind Mankins and make a bee-line for Brady.


FRAME THREE:

In this frame Mankins obviously spots what they’re up to and tries to reach back to slow him down but Smith is already past him and has Brady in his sights. At this point Brady has no time to get the ball off to Danny Woodhead (breaking on the right hand side), or Wes Welker who is actually open outside this frame and would have been the guy Brady would have likely hit for a first down.


FRAME FOUR:

In this frame Smith grabs Brady and he’s forced to just throw it away. It’s one of many creative things San Francsico did Sunday night, and there were quite a few instances for much of the evening where they were able to do similar things which gave them problems.

After sitting back down and going back over last night’s game, one of the biggest problems during the game was the fact San Francisco was able to create pressure using just a four man front in passing situations.

One guy who struggled last night was Dan Connolly, who had quite the battle with San Francisco’s Ray McDonald.  That ended up being a problematic match-up, and here’s a quick look at a sack he made last night.

FRAME ONE:

In this first frame above you’ll see McDonald (circled) lined up against Connolly on a 3rd and 7 from the 49ers 7-yard line.  He’s going to bull right past him and kill the drive and force the field goal attempt.


FRAME TWO:

You can see in the above frame that McDonald starts working his way inside, although Danny Woodhead is still in the backfield, but he ends up chipping Aldon Smith before slipping out.  Unfortunately by then Brady’s already down.


FRAME THREE

The worst part about this play is Brady should have a throwing lane to Aaron Hernandez, who is coming across right in Brady’s view and he’s got space right now to let go of the ball.  The problem is McDonald has already slipped past Connolly inside and as a result he’s standing right in the way – so Brady can’t throw it.


FRAME FOUR

Now it’s breaking down and you can see Brady starts to try to slide to his left to get away, but McDonald starts to accelerate and he’s going to get away.  The window to throw the ball has already closed because you can see Hernandez was more or less his only option.  Wes Welker (who was in the right slot) and Deion Branch (split out right) – as you can see at the top of the screen – are both covered.


FRAME FIVE: Game Over

McDonald takes him down, which is too bad because the protection with everyone else on this play was actually pretty good.  But it’s another example of some of the issues they had last night, and the fact San Francisco was able to be so effective rushing just four guys hurt because looking at these numbers Brady historically is pretty lethal when teams commit extra blitzers against them.

It’s just one look at a myriad of issues, but it was one key play in a first half that saw them go 0-for-7 on third down, which allowed San Francisco to grab control of the game early. They could have used a touchdown on that play, which would have tied the game. Unfortunately at the time that sack helped give the 49ers some additional confidence and momentum, and they were able to hold New England to a field goal on that drive.

Going over the numbers from last night, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick had quite a night against the Patriots, finishing with four touchdowns while also throwing an interception. Looking at the passing chart the most obviously part that makes his performance the most alarming was the fact the only completions he had on deep throws were all touchdowns – one to each zone of the field against New England’s secondary.

Here’s a breakdown of where each 49ers receiver did the most damage last night:

DEEP LEFT
R.Moss – 1 Target, 1 Reception, 24 Yards 1 TD
M.Crabtree – 2 Targets, 0 Receptions
V.Davis – 1 Target, 0 Receptions

DEEP MIDDLE
M.Crabtree – 1 Target, 1 Reception, 27 Yards 1 TD
V.Davis – 1 Target, 0 Receptions
R.Moss – 1 Target, 0 Receptions

DEEP RIGHT
D.Walker – 1 Target, 1 Reception, 34 Yards 1 TD
M.Crabtree – 1 Target, 0 Receptions

SHORT LEFT
M.Crabtree – 4 Targets, 3 Receptions, 55 Yards, 1 TD
F.Gore – 1 Target, 1 Reception 26 Yards
R.Moss – 2 Targets, 1 Reception, 12 Yards

SHORT MIDDLE
F.Gore – 1 Target, 1 Reception, 8 Yards
M.Crabtree – 1 Target, 0 Receptions

SHORT RIGHT
M.Crabtree – 3 Targets, 3 Receptions, 25 Yards
V.Davis – 1 Target, 1 Reception, 10 Yards
L.James – 1 Target, 0 Receptions
D.Walker – 1 Target, 1 Reception, -5 Yards

Charting the 49ers Rushing Attack From Sunday Night

Taking a look back at last night’s game, you can see the 49ers clearly favored rushing to the middle and left hand side against the Patriots, and here’s a breakdown of where they ran the football and which guys had success to each zone.

LEFT END:
D.Goldson: 1 Carry, 31 yards (Fake Punt run)
L.James: 5 Carries, 25 yards (5.0avg)
F.Gore: 2 Carries, 12 Yards (6.0 avg)
C.Kaepernick: 1 Carry, 10 Yards

LEFT TACKLE:
F.Gore: 4 Carries, 17 Yards (4.3 avg)
L.James: 1 Carry, 1 Yard

LEFT GUARD:
F.Gore: 4 Carries, 19 Yards (4.8 avg)

MIDDLE
F.Gore: 7 Carries, 17 Yards (2.4 avg)
A.Dixon: 1 Carry, 5 Yards

RIGHT GUARD
F.Gore: 2 Carries, 11 Yards (5.5 avg)
L.James: 1 Carry, 4 Yards (4.0 avg)
A.Dixon: 1 Carry, 2 Yards (2.0 avg)

RIGHT TACKLE
C.Kaepernick: 1 Carry, 19 Yards
F.Gore: 1 Carry, 5 Yards

RIGHT END
F.Gore: 1 Carry, 2 Yards
L.James: 1 Carry, 1 Yards