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GLENDALE, Ariz. - The Patriots still have Tom Brady, thank goodness.
And still, if the Patriots want to win Super Bowl XLIX, it shouldn't be because of Brady.
The Patriots will be locked in a death struggle with the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks on Sunday evening at University of Phoenix Stadium. It is a fine accomplishment for the Patriots just being here, as it represents the eighth Super Bowl in team history, tying Dallas for the most trips to The Show by one team.
But as Drew Bledsoe said after filling in for Brady just prior to Super Bowl XXXVI, "Gotta win it!" The Patriots have lost their last two Super Bowls after winning three in a row. They need to win this one. It will be easier said than done, as they face a Seattle team much better and tougher than the two Giants teams they lost to in Super Bowls XLII and XLVI.
There really is one way for the Patriots to ensure a win on Sunday night. Old school coaches have been saying it for decades. It is how John (thanks, Terrell Davis) Elway finally won the big one after three prior failures.
Run the ball.
Stop the run.
If both of those things happen, the Patriots most likely win their fourth Vince.
The passing game on both sides could turn out to be a push. The Seahawks' secondary could shut down the passing game, even Rob Gronkowski. Brady could find himself under siege once again like he was in the two losses to the Giants. If he has time to throw, who will be open? Maybe if no Seattle defender thinks Sebastian Vollmer can catch a pass and they don't pay him any attention.
On the other side, Seattle doesn't have scary receivers. Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are good, but not fantastic. Tight end Luke Willson is the same. Some experts think Darrelle Revis may be a complete non-factor in this game. Russell Wilson could perhaps find these guys in certain situations, especially in the fourth quarter. But overall, they don't strike fear in you.
The one guy the Patriots have to stop? Marshawn Lynch.
The one guy who has to have a great game for the Patriots? LeGarrette Blount. Or Jonas Gray. Or Brandon Bolden. Or a combination of two or three of them.
Not Shane Vereen. He is a situational pass receiving running back who is more like what Kevin Faulk and Danny Woodhead were. The Patriots need the power running game to work, and Vereen isn't this type of runner.
 A great game on Sunday night by LeGarrette Blount is perhaps the biggest key to a Patriot victory in Super Bowl XLIX. (USA TODAY Images) |
Let's assume, to shorten this discussion, that it's Blount that turns out to be the guy who gets fed the most. Since being re-acquired from Pittsburgh (if DeflateGate isn't enough, Steeler Nation is crying tampering by the Patriots), Blount has reinvigorated the Patriot running attack, despite being picked up just after Gray's 201-yard bonanza at Indianapolis.
If Bryan Stork can stay healthy at the center position, then he, guards Dan Connally and Ryan Wendell, and fullback James Develin have to be supreme road graders. The two worst games of Logan Mankins' career were his two Super Bowls. This cannot happen here. These four guys have to open up holes and get Blount tough yards inside. Tackles Nate Solder and Vollmer will have to handle outside pressure on Brady. It is said that you can run up the gut on Seattle, and Josh McDaniels has to commit to the run and work it in accordingly.
As for Lynch, at least he has familiarity with New England. He played for three full seasons in Buffalo, then was traded during his fourth season to Seattle for two middle round draft picks. In four games against the Patriots as a Bill, he rushed for 224 yards on 55 carries for a 4.1 yards per carry average. All four games were Patriot wins. Lynch was held to less than four yards per carry in three of those games.
What skews these numbers is a September 26, 2010 game at Gillette Stadium, his last against the Patriots as a Bill. He rushed for 79 yards on 13 carries, averaging just over six yards a carry. But Brady was terrific, hitting on 21 of 27 passing for 252 yards and three touchdowns. And the key to the win? BenJarvus Green-Ellis outdid Lynch with 98 yards on 16 carries and an average just higher than Lynch's. The Patriots won, 38-30.
Super Bowl XLIX won't be a 38-30 game. It could be a one-score game. The Patriots must win the running back battle to win the game. Lynch must be controlled. If Jamie Collins is used as a spy for Wilson, either Patrick Chung or Devin McCourty could come up and help with run stoppage if Revis and Brandon Browner can hold their own in man coverage. The Patriots might be able to get away with not having to use cover two. If this be the case, it will help the Patriots greatly.
The line on this Super Bowl is still pick 'em. The game promises to be a great one. The reigning champs versus the dynasty. The current coach versus the previous coach. The 12th man versus the Patriot Way, or what's left of it.
But in the end, it's really Blount versus Lynch. If Blount wins, as Bruins radio man Dave Goucher once said, "Get the duck boats ready!"
And that's putting it rather Blount-ly.
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