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This may be the first time in NFL history that the words "AFC Championship" and "trap game" are used together in the same sentence.
The premise is ludicrous. The Patriots are one win away from the Super Bowl. And you're talking "trap game"?
It all started last Sunday in Denver. What seemed to be pre-ordained as Brady-Manning XVII instead will be Brady-Luck IV. The Patriots suddenly went from a grudge match against a longtime nemesis and a revenge game against the team that sent them home for the winter last year to a team which has been literally no puzzle for the Patriots in past years. The Indianapolis Colts come to Foxborough on Sunday for the 2014 AFC Championship, not the Denver Broncos, and most of Patriot Nation now thinks that the road to Glendale, Arizona just got far less bumpy and hilly.
Look at the record. In the last three meetings, the Patriots have outscored the Colts by an aggregate of 144-66. All three of those games have been with Andrew Luck at quarterback for the Colts. The Colts haven't beaten the Patriots since 2009, the Fourth And Two game. On the other hand, Denver is 3-1 against the Patriots all time in the postseason, with the only win coming at home and with Tim Tebow as the Bronco quarterback. How can't the average Patriot fan sit there and exhale knowing that the only team between them and the eighth Super Bowl in franchise history is the Colts and not the Broncos?
Thus you have a possibility of a trap game on Sunday. In the AFC Championship Game. You went from Peyton Manning, the Thomases, Wes Welker, Aqib Talib, the vaunted Bronco running game and defense to a possible 40-20 cakewalk. Even though Bill Belichick will preach the "one game at a time" mantra all week long, most everyone has to be looking more closely at the Seattle-Green Bay game on Sunday, for the purpose of who the Patriots play when they get to the Super Bowl.
So, this message is for everyone and everything Patriotic. Stop looking ahead. Win Sunday, then worry about the Super Bowl.
That said, here are the five keys to a Patriot AFC Championship on Sunday.
 Bill Belichick has the Patriots on the doorstep of the Super Bowl once again. (USA TODAY Images) |
Remember the Wildcat?
In 2008, one season removed from a perfect regular season, the Patriots hosted the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium during Week 3. Head coach Tony Sparano and offensive coordinator Dan Henning unleashed something on the Patriots that no one had ever seen before, something the Patriots had absolutely no answer for. It was called the "Wildcat". The Dolphins won, 38-13, on their way to their last division title and playoff appearance to date.
If the Patriots bring their "A" game to the table on Sunday, it will take something like that for the Colts to win. On paper, the Patriots are deeper than the Colts, they know how to attack them, and they know how to defend them. Luck may still get big numbers, but the Patriots win if they do not come out stale or get caught looking ahead to the Super Bowl. So, unless offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton thinks he can revolutionize pro football with some new offense that Belichick and Matt Patricia cannot adjust to or outmaneuver, the Patriots don't lose. Period.
Colts will have Gray area covered
Let Jonas Gray out of the doghouse, then unleash him. Over-under on Gray touchdowns: three. Right?
Not on your Sports Illustrated cover jinxes. In fact, don't be shocked if Belichick and Josh McDaniels continue to favor LeGarrette Blount over Gray. In last year's Divisional playoff win over Indianapolis, Blount rushed for 166 yards and four touchdowns. Ask Blount if Gray's 201-yard outburst in November impressed him at all. Blount might give a diplomatic answer, but privately he may be thinking something like "Yeah, dog, talk to me when you get five touchdowns!"
Of course, Gray might get fed quite a bit. The smart thinking is that the Colts will be ready for Gray and not let him beat them. But they will also have to deal with Blount, and don't forget Brandon Bolden. All three of these guys could gouge the Colt run defense, and all three could be fresh as a daisy in the fourth quarter when it's time to run clock and book travel plans for Phoenix.
Brady cannot make any dumb throws
One thing that could swing the game the Colts' way is a bad game by Tom Brady. In the November meeting, he was picked off twice by Mike Adams, and both throws were hideous. He tried to hit Bryan Tyms on a deep ball in triple coverage, then closed out the first half by lobbing a watermelon to Rob Gronkowski on play action on third and short, a play that screamed for a run.
Brady has had a penchant for picks in recent playoff games. He has 23 career playoff interceptions, including three against the Jets in the infamous 2010 playoff loss at home when they were the one seed and expected to blow the Jets away. Brady has to have a great game to ensure they will win and not leave the game up to the running game or the defense. He was fortunate that Gray did so well in November such that the two picks did not hurt his team. That cannot happen again on Sunday.
Do not forget that they still have Adam
Perish the thought that this game comes down to whomever has the ball last, and a field goal wins the game.
Yes, Stephen Gostkowski could make a game-winner in the postseason. He did so in the last road postseason win by the Patriots, in San Diego in 2006. But the Colt kicker is the guy whose place Gostkowski took.
Adam Vinatieri is likely heading to Canton someday. He is carving out an even more impressive kicking legacy than the one he left behind in Foxborough. He will own every multiple-team kicking record when he is done. But the one thing that he will always be remembered for in Foxborough could jump up and bite the Patriots on the ankle on Sunday.
Because if the game comes down to a field goal, and if it's the Colts who have the ball last, you might as well turn off your television. You won't want to watch. Vinatieri has never lost an AFC Championship Game. He may be 42 years old. But he is not Gary Anderson. He will make that kick. He isn't Automatic Adam for nothing.
Simply stated, put the Colts away early. Don't let the game stay close, especially in the fourth quarter.
Win the game, then make Super plans
The Patriots cannot lose this game. Of course, they can. But they just can't.
Some talk show guests have opined that if the Patriots lose on Sunday, it will be the worst loss of the Belichick-Brady era. Nah. Let's go further.
A loss Sunday would rank as maybe the worst loss in Boston sports history. The Super Bowl XLII loss was pretty bad. So was the 1978 playoff loss to the Yankees by the Red Sox, as well as Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS. The Bruins and Celtics have had playoff stumbles, but none of which would equal the devastation that would ensue if the Patriots don't at least get into Super Bowl XLIX.
This alone should motivate the Patriots to play well and avoid a trap game. After the 1980 USA hockey team won the epic battle against the Soviets, they trailed Finland 2-1 after two periods in the Gold Medal game. Coach Herb Brooks told his players "If you lose this game, you'll take this game to your graves. To your (expletive) graves." The team won, 4-2, to take the Gold Medal. Brooks' mantra would pertain to the 2014 Patriots.
The Super Bowl will be another story. Both Green Bay and Seattle will give the AFC champ a battle. The Patriots have to make sure that it is they who will be in that battle instead of watching with deep regret.
And then, of course, there is the proverbial "window of opportunity". Brady has a legit chance at special NFL history, as does Belichick. And Brady does not have a lot of career left. The Patriots cannot louse up at least the chance to add another chalice to the trophy case. Sooner or later this long run of prosperity will either change or end completely.
The opening line for the Patriots had them a seven-point favorite. It has since been lowered to 6.5 points. Do the bettors know something Patriot Nation doesn't?
History is at hand for the Patriots. They have a Super Bowl bid staring them in the face. They simply have to take advantage. They simply have to win.
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