What the Patriots Must Do Differently in Week 15 to Defeat the Miami Dolphins
 The Patriots could lean on LeGarrette Blount and the ground game to win on Sunday against the Dolphins. (USA TODAY Images) |
When the New England Patriots lost to the Miami Dolphins in week one, they found themselves in an unfamiliar position. Last place in the AFC East, with the other three division teams all winning.
Now it's week 15, the Patriots lead the AFC East with a conference leading 10-3 record. New England has an opportunity Sunday to clinch the division and secure at least one home playoff game. Needless to say, there's a lot on the line.
But week one was an ugly performance by the Pats. Despite a 10-point lead at halftime, they were unable to finish the job and left the team searching for answers early on.
After taking a look back at the last matchup, here's what the Patriots must do different this week in order to win. --
Win in the Trenches: The Dolphins dominated at the point of attack on both fronts in week one. Miami's rebuilt offensive line helped tailback Knowshon Moreno gashed the Patriots defense for 134 yards.
It will be different this time around, though. Moreno is on Injured-Reserve and left tackle Brandon Albert, who many praised for securing their offensive line, was also lost for the year with a knee injury.
New England's front seven, playing primarily in a 3-4 alignment week one, was pushed around all game. It's safe to assume Bill Belichick will be making some adjustments going into this contest. Not only will the team focus on the running game featuring Lamar Miller, but also pressuring quarterback Ryan Tannehill.
On the flip side, the Patriots offensive line has a tall order in front of them. Miami has two strong defensive ends, Cameron Wake and Oliver Vernon, who could give New England a tough time. With left tackle Nate Solder struggling in week 14, he'll need to rebound for the Patriots to change the outcome. Tom Brady was sacked four times in week one.
Run it Down Their Throat: The Patriots rushed 20 times for 89 yards in week one. With Miami's defensive line knocking back the Pats offensive line, it was tough for New England to gain any traction on the ground.
Miami's struggled to defend the run as of late, allowing 661 yards in the last three weeks alone. Josh McDaniels might look to exploit that weakness, with a heavy dose of LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray grinding it out. Given Miami's strong pass rush weapons, this would also keep them away from Brady and put New England's offensive line in better position to succeed.
Third Downs in Focus: The Patriots went 5-for-17 on third down week one. The Dolphins on the other hand went 7-for-13. With Brady under duress and the running game stuck in the mud, New England's offense couldn't stay on the field.
This time around New England may look to the aforementioned ground attack with Miami's weakened run defense. High percentage throws and better execution will be key.
The Pats defense is coming off a stellar performance in week 14, holding the Chargers to seven offensive points and just 4-of-13 on third down. They will look to suffocate the Dolphins rushing attack, making them one-sided and forcing Tannehill to make tough decisions. Defensive end Chandler Jones potential return would be a big boost to their pass rush.
Finish Strong: In week one, the Patriots had a hot-and-cold performance. Even after bumpy start, the team had a 20-10 lead going into halftime. The Dolphins scored 23 unanswered points in the second half, ultimately winning 33-20.
The Patriots have struggled in the third quarter over the past three weeks. In fact, the team has only scored three points combined in the last three contests, with their lone field goal coming against the Detroit Lions at home in week 12.
The Patriots have to find a way to get into a rhythm and get back on track in the second half. Perhaps the run game could help get the offense on track. The last thing this team wants to do is what they did last week at San Diego, opening the third quarter with four-straight three-and-outs.
Game Analysis: The Dolphins had an opportunity last week to make this game for the division. Despite a first quarter lead at home against the Baltimore Ravens, the team fell apart and lost 28-13. With Miami head coach Joe Philbin on the hot seat, the pressure will be on he and the team to perform at Gillette Sunday afternoon.
The Patriots know what's at stake, however, and have won eight of their last nine games this season. While I believe this had the potential to be a dogfight a few weeks ago, Miami seems to be pointing fingers at each other and not ready for a New England opponent that's averaging 35.6 points-per-game at home this season.
The Pats could lean on the run game, opening up play action later in the contest. If the Patriots grab an early lead, this contest could get ugly quickly.
Prediction: Patriots 31, Dolphins 20
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