Billed as the Battle of Bills - Top Teams Must Contend on Field
Game Notes
Bill Parcells brings his 7-2 Cowboys to Foxboro for a
Sunday Night Match-up which pits him against his former friend and team
in the Bill Belichick coached New England Patriots. Two division
leading teams meeting at this point in the season always draws well
earned attention for the quality of the competition. The rivalry
of the coaches is clear and their desire to win for such only
intensifies the drama and the competition. Ultimately the battle
of two top-notch coaches is only a small part of the scenery. The
execution of the players and the nature of their individual matches will
dictate this game. Terry "I Hate Everything about New
England" also returns as the Cowboys leading receiver and most of
New England's Secondary hopes to give him good reason for his potent
emotional outlook.
While Dallas has dominated the infrequent battles by
holding a 7-1 victory edge, New England was victorious in their last
battle in 1999. The pertinent significance for this game is not in
the historical series, it's in the coaching match, the team records and
the individual matches. The loss could likely put Dallas in a tie
for their division lead while New England does have an extra game
cushion. When the season winds down games such as these will
frequently have prepared a team for post-season victories as well as
steps closer to the highly coveted home-field advantage. This is a
classic game with all the appropriate ramifications and nearing midnight
on Sunday night there will be a team with at least a better record if
not the type of confidence which carries a team deep through the second
half of the season.
Injury Report:
The mystery of the Injury report won't tell
us whether Richard Seymour is likely to play. It won't tell us
whether big Ted Washington or tough Ted Johnson will return tot he
line-up for this marquee match. The Patriots are looking far more
healthy after their bye week but they still do not have the good fortune
of the Cowboys who barely made a stirring on their initial injury
report. Injuries will be a factor but it will be a smaller factor
than it has been since the start of the season for New England.
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New England Patriots
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Dallas Cowboys
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QUESTIONABLE:
WR Troy Brown (leg)
S Je'Rod Cherry (knee)
LB Ted Johnson (foot)
CB Ty Law (ankle)
RB Fred McCrary (leg)
DT Richard Seymour (leg)
DT Ted Washington (leg)
PROBABLE:
QB Tom Brady (arm)
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QUESTIONABLE:
LB Markus Steele (ankle)
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Opponent Review
The Dallas Cowboys are the top defense in the NFL.
They allow a league best 234.6 yards per game. Their passing
defense is also top in the league which generally is connected since
passing yards more frequently comprise the bulk of an offensive
attack. Also in terms of yards their rushing defense is third in
the league at 85.1 yards per game. In the most important statistic
for judging a defense, scoring allowed, the Cowboys are tops again
allowing only 15.1 yards per game. They are simply an outstanding
defense inspired by the Master Motivator, Bill Parcells, to swarm to the
ball. The secondary are excellent at coverage with reserves
talented enough to handle the multiple receiver formations of New
England. Their safeties are hard hitting with the speed to add to
a pass rush when blitzes are called. The linebackers are as a unit
faster than any other group in the NFL. Aiding them is a capable
defensive line with decent speed on the outside for pass rushing and
sideline to sideline pursuit. The Defensive Tackle work on the
speed and power tandem of Glover and Blade respectively. Nguyen is
the Middle Linebacker who will perform with the speed of Zach Thomas but
without the reads made by Thomas. Dexter Coakley is just behind
him in tackles as this speed tandem represent the heart of the Dallas
defense. In the last two weeks this defensive unit has faced poor
offensive lines, immobile quarterbacks and challenged running
games. As such they've launched a battery of blitzes which has
decimated their opponent. There is further question regarding the
actual talent of the offenses they have faced thus far this season but
make no mistake, the group has talent and has learned to believe in
themselves and their coach on their way to the 7-2 mark.
Offensively the Cowboys came into the season with great
receiving talent, a big powerful line but a significant question at
Quarterback. Quincy Carter has emerged highly successfully mostly
on the benefit of Parcells giving him clear instructions. Carter
isn't being asked to do more than play within himself and the simplified
system and talented options have paid dividends. Their running
game has a bit of turmoil as Adrien Murrell emerged for the lead role
last week after primary back Troy Hambrick showed a propensity to fumble
more than Parcells is willing to tolerate. Neither is averaging
close enough to the 4 yards per carry needed for a dominating running
attack. Still, more than half of their plays have been runs to
ease some pressure and with their dedication they have earned the 7th
best yardage on the ground of any NFL offense. The addition of Perennial
Pats Killer Richie Anderson has provided a talented safety valve for
Carter in his blitz reads as well as his impressive receiving
skills. So when not finding any of his trio of receiving threats
such as ex-Pat and current Cowboy Reception leader Terry Glenn, he may
be finding Anderson. Speedster Joey Galloway is the other starting
wide-out and his well known talent helps make Antonio Bryant yet another
speedy threat when in the multiple receiver set. Parcells knows
well to use Glenn in the slot and keep him from the jams which have been
a problem in his career. Ultimately they throw a vertical game to
their receivers or outlet to their fullback when options are handled.
Our Match-up Weakness
Dallas has an outstanding and speedy defense which
allows no room to run outside the tackles while being capable of
punishing the short passing game is so frequently a mainstay in the
Patriot attack. The safeties in their scheme are more free to shut
down the deep pass which was the savior in Denver while trusting the
linebackers to flood the shorter routes to either punish the receivers
or tip away Brady's attempts. Although not renowned for turnovers
they are well suited to limit New England's preferred modes of attack.
The Cowboys have more speed depth at receiver than the
Patriots have faced up to this point. Although the New England
Secondary has given up yards without points, they will be more severely
challenged to keep pace with this group and if their schemes get a
speedster on a linebacker it could prove costly for New England.
Parcells will not allow his team to abandon a successful
running attack. The absence of Seymour did make New England a bit
softer against the run last match and Parcells will exploit it as long
as it shows. While Seymour is a question at this point, Parcells
will be prepared to challenge the Patriots run defense without the mercy
granted by Miami and Denver. At 6'1" 230 Troy Hambrick is a
powerful force against New England's linebackers. The line in
front is enormous and will attempt to wear down the undersized portions
of the Patriot defense to break out ball control and Hambrick against
the linebackers.
Our Match-up Strength
Quincy Carter is kept on simplified systems in large
part to support his inexperience. He will now face the most
complicated schemes he's seen to date and has matched his touchdown
total (9) with interceptions. When called to pass his lower
completion percentage and limited experience may result in fewer
conversions than the Cowboys need to keep control of the ball and game.
Dallas loves to blitz on defense but Tom Brady has
proven to have excellent pocket awareness. He will shift in the
pocket and pre-read the blitz to continually make the right
decisions. A major part of the defensive strength could be well
neutralized by this awareness and reaction from New England.
This is not a neutral location. New England has a
particular passion against Terry Glenn and Bill Parcells. With all
the significance of this game there will be a riled crowd on hand for
the night game and their noise will make things challenging for Carter
and his offense. Along with the crowds vocal support the Cowboys
face their first battle with cold weather which again will challenge
their offense significantly.
Strategy
Offensively New England has two viable options.
The Cowboys are fast but a power running attack which puts a guard on a
linebacker does much to neutralize this speed. A physical run
attack and power back such as Antowain Smith can gain yards against this
group and New England has worked with some success against similar
units. In conjunction with this style of attack which puts
pressure on the middle of the linebacking corps, New England has a pair
of talented tight ends with Graham especially beginning to emerge as a
favorite target for Brady. The two attacks play off each other to
make the other more successful and could eventually pull the safeties
from their deep coverage to support the middle. This is dangerous
as Denver learned because Brady can in fact throw the long ball and both
Givens and Branch are legitimate deep threats.
Defensively New England must stop the run while
confusing Quincy Carter. The Cowboys run a significant amount of
the time and with the expected return of Teds (Washington and Johnson)
the run defense should improve significantly. Stopping the run
puts pressure for Carter to beat him and much as Kannell faltered in
Denver, the Patriot scheme of forcing continued small plays for a drive
should begin to work in their favor. When passing situations arise
it will be New England's turn to get a quick and surprise blitz onto
Carter while Zone Coverages roll under their receivers and cause the
turnovers which have been a mainstay of New England's seven victories.
Dallas does want to run the ball at the undersized
portions of New England but also they wish to mix in early down passes
to prevent New England from stacking against this run. Richie
Anderson has always been particularly effective against them and he can
drift out to soften the middle for the powerful running game which
depends on linebacker support. The Patriots know Glenn doesn't
like to be hit at the line and Law will probably be asked to do just
that with some frequency. Thus moving Glenn in the slot will also
be a common practice.
Defensively Dallas needs to stage back on their blitz
approach. Attack the right guard and tackle with their stunts
because this has been a weakness which has forced pressure without the
need for blitzing. This will allow their linebacker speed to shut
down the run and flood the short routes successfully. The
infrequent blitz will be all the more effective and the change will
disrupt some of New England's planning for these blitzes. The
Patriot receivers are getting more depleted and the hard hitting
philosophy of Woodson and especially Williams will wear down the
receivers and limit New England even further. If their line can
generate the pressure it will keep the linebackers free to shut down the
shorter attacks with the corners and the safeties will prevent deep
gains.
Prediction
This is a good battle but New England does have the
greater talent, the better schemes, the more recent rest, the home field
and as such simply too many advantages. This doesn't mean the game
won't be close, Dallas has too good a defense for a major route unless
the Cowboy offense chooses to surrender points. The game will rely
on Field Position in which Ken Walter has been more of a liability than
a benefit this season. Ultimately the battle of two good defenses
then defaults to the skill of their offensive counterparts to
successfully win enough battles to take the game. Brady has all
the edges needed over Carter and with the extra rest of the bye week his
offensive teammates will supply 23 points while the defense for New
England beats out Quincy Carter and the Cowboys struggle to reach two
touchdowns after an early field goal.
New England Patriots - 23 - Dallas Cowboys - 17