X vs O as Belichick and Spurrier Battle 

Game Notes

   There are two points being billed as significant in this game.  The much bantered Injury Debacle going on in Foxboro these days is certainly the more popular topic as the Patriots list 10 players on their injury report without counting the season loss of Rosevelt Colvin or the current IR status of  three offensive lineman: Mike Compton, Kenyatta Jones and Stephen Neal.  Certainly there is much reason to notice the injuries which weigh far more heavily on the New England Patriots yet the Patriots themselves are talking the right game with their focus entirely forward to their schemes and formations with spoken confidence in their replacements.  Perhaps with good reason as the replacements held up well against the Jets last week and these same replacements played very well against the Redskins in a preseason tilt.  

   The second factor is the notion of Steve Spurrier and his highly touted offensive skills bringing his number one ranked offensive unit to face the Defensive Genius of Bill Belichick and his walking wounded schemes of confusion.  The new Coach and his "Fun n Gun" seemingly have all the advantages as he squares off against a long term defensive stalwart but the Patriots seem to always surprise when faced with an 'impossible' game.

   Game history is barely a factor as pre-season is as poor an indication as the prior regular season meetings of these teams.  They've battled six times in NFL history with Washington holding a solid 5-1 edge including 5 straight.  However, the last of these was 7 years prior in 1996 and is the only game for which any current players were on their respective rosters!  There is history as Washington has raided the Jets' roster with nearly the same enthusiasm as the border war days of New England and New York.  Belichick has some familiarity with the players involved and recent Redskin signee Wilbert Brown adds depth to a depleted Offensive Line but also provides some inside information on the offensive line responsibility reads from Washington's perspective.  Given the need to pressure Ramsey this may give Belichick the tool he needs to overcome some injury adversity with schemes.

Injury Report:

Our Match-up Weakness

   The list is very long but the nature of them may prove to ultimately play to the Patriots advantage.  Ted "Mount" Washington was perhaps the most significant key to the New England Defense.  Ted Johnson was the run stuffing specialist of the linebackers.  THe absence of both creates a hole in the run defense which may be sized similar to last year when teams made far too much progress up the middle and on the ground.  The entire middle of their offensive line is powerful and athletic while running back Trung Canidate has the speedy and slashing style to exploit their athleticism.  If the Redskins can find a way to play power running they make it a long day on the depleted front 7 of the Patriots.  Worse still the Redskins actually use Ladell Betts and his battering ram style more frequently than Canidate and this could be the most serious mismatch on the field.

   Laveranues Coles has logged a 100 yard receiving effort in each of the season's three games.  His blazing speed and excellent misdirection are challenging for a skilled and healthy veteran.  The Patriots are more likely looking at an injured Veteran (Ty Law) or an untested rookie (Asante Samuels) as spending a bit too much time worrying about Coles.

   Defensively the Redskins stellar linebacking corps may be the fastest in the league and this is particularly effective in hampering New England's prime modes of attack: short passes and outside runs.  Trotter and Arrington have as much talent and speed as any linebacker duo in the league.  Similar to Buffalo's handling of the Patriot offense, this tandem along with Jesse Armstead match up very well to punish the short routes and capture the outside runs in the backfield.

Our Match-up Strength

   The Patriots defense relies on masking schemes to confuse Quarterbacks.  The system run by Spurrier is confusing enough such that the addition of Belichick's masking will be a great challenge to the inexperienced Ramsey.  Getting an inside view of the O-line reads will only serve to augment Belichick's ability to devise a means to pressure Ramsey much as they did in the preseason.

   The Redskin defensive line has not managed to put heavy pressure on a Quarterback yet this season.  Three of their five team sacks have come from blitzing linebackers and this lack of pressure may be precisely the advantage Tom Brady needs to find his open read.  The use of the short game discourages the blitzing linebackers as an additional perk in this match.

   While both teams have had some discipline problems with penalties, the Redskins have been particularly poor in this region.  Eighteen penalties against the Giants is not something likely to be corrected overnight.  Their line likes to jump early and Tom Brady is particularly good at drawing out a cadence.  Expect a few key penalties could turn some significant moments in favor of the Patriots.

Strategy

   The Redskins and their proud coach have adjusted their philosophy to put a bit more emphasis on the run.  This is a game in which they might well wish to force the Patriots into a cheating defense which stacks the middle to stop their running attack.  This kind of commitment isn't in Spurrier's vocabulary however and while most every team in the league watched the Patriot soft spot open last year and found a means to exploit it, Spurrier will likely make only token diversions to this power running assault.  He'll make cursory efforts but he's always looking for the passing game and with a pair of threats in Coles and Gardner this isn't necessarily a poor decision.  In either case he doesn't tend to utilize his Tight Ends or Backs as frequently as many teams.  Still there is no mistake, this offense is far more potent than either of the two previously faced by New England.

   Defensively the Redskins will sit contentedly in the oh so vogue Cover-2 Defense.  The Safeties roll over the top of receivers even considering anything deep while trusting the linebackers to shut down the middle routes.  They have excellent corners in Bailey and Smoot thus giving them the luxury to isolate those guys to great success on most receivers.  This can make up for their lack of pass rush and allow them to blitz a safety on occasion as a surprise to the Patriot line.

   New England's offense has a tough task ahead of them.  An ailing Tom Brady is struggling to throw the deep ball and their foes line up swiftly to punish the short game.  That swiftness can be negated if they can pull in at least one of the linebackers to respect the run.  Bernard Holsey and Bruce Smith line up on the right side of the defensive line and they can be run at directly.  A short bit of success in this approach can pull in the linebackers just the one step needed to open up lanes for their quick passing game while also slowing the tempo of the game to thwart the Fun 'N Gun from too many opportunities.

   Defensively they have several blue-prints from which they can draw upon a game plan.  A common theme for Belichick is to take away the favorite weapon of the opposition (Coles) and force them to use their other weapons better than New England's defensive base.  With Gardner and the rushing attack still a very dangerous threat, it seems more likely to take a page from their Superbowl season's first match with the Rams.  In that match Marshall Faulk overcame the scheme and Kurt Warner was quick enough to escape with victory when Antowain Smith fumbled on the goal.  The scheme is solid and Trung Canidate is no Marshall Faulk nor is Patrick Ramsey up to the standards of Kurt Warner.  In this scheme the Patriots will use four downed linemen, one linebacker and six defensive backs on a regular basis.  Blitzes come from all over as the shifting cover packages continually dare the Redskins to run while the linebacker and one of the backs steadily spy the running backs.  It plays down the injury depleted linebackers and allows the Patriots to punish the receivers should they manage to get open.  Meanwhile Rodney Harrison affords run stuffing support to back up the linebacker on a regular basis.  Similarly the zone coverages this allows will provide an immediate and enhanced challenge for the young Ramsey.

Prediction

   Once again New England has a ready made 'excuse' to lose.  This time their is conviction in their voice when they dismiss this notion.  The offense has yet to carry enough of the load and they seem motivated to finally demonstrate they have talent as well.  The injury to Champ Bailey may be as significant as any out there given the Patriots ability to put considerable shifty and speedy receivers in all the zones.  Tom Brady with time to throw will be far more able to progress through his reads and get his men open past the linebackers.  They get on the scoreboard early and pressure Spurrier into feeling the need to score again.  The Redskins can put up points quickly but not against a Belichick defense which thrives on preventing big plays.  The game will be close but New England will force a key turnover late to stem off the Redskin rally.

New England 27  - Washington 24